this article examines the basic assumption of rational expectations hypothesis on iran's economy from 1966 to 2003. this assumption suggests the neutrality or ineffectiveness of money policy on the development of real variables of production and employment. the results from estimation of production equation do not support the significant influence of unanticipated component of money growth...

The decisions to reduce, leave unchanged, or increase (the price, rating, policy interest rate, etc.) are often characterized by abundant no-change outcomes that are generated by di¤erent processes. Moreover, the positive and negative responses can also be driven by distinct forces. To capture the heterogeneity of the data-generating process this paper develops a two-stage cross-nested model, c...

A market maker sets prices over time for wagers that pay out contingent on the future state of the world. The market maker has knowledge of the probability of realizing each state of the world, and of how the price of a bet affects the probability that traders will accept it. We compare the optimal policy for risk-neutral (expected utility maximizing) and Kelly criterion (expected log-utility m...

The demand for fossil fuel in the transport sector is constantly increasing and transportation is ranked amongst the highest greenhouse emitting sectors globally. Today, tackling CO2 emissions from road transport a widely discussed topic and constitutes a milestone towards reaching a sustainable, carbon neutral economy. This challenge is being described in various initiatives adopted in the ...

This thesis examines theories of analysis, evaluation, and learning in policy development and applies them to a case study of developing legislation in Massachusetts to manage used motor oil from people who change their own oil. Policy-oriented learning is facilitated by open consensus building processes that build understanding of policy problems and solutions through discourse and argument. W...

Traditional inventory models focus on risk neutral decision makers, i.e., characterizing replenishment strategies that maximize expected total profit, or equivalently, minimize expected total cost over a planning horizon. In this paper, we propose a general framework for incorporating risk aversion in multi-period inventory models as well as multi-period models that coordinate inventory and pri...

Extensible systems, such as Java or the SPIN extensible operating system, allow for units of code, or extensions, to be added to a running system in almost arbitrary fashion. Extensions closely interact through low-latency, but type-safe interfaces to form a tightly integrated system. As extensions can come from arbitrary sources, not all of whom can be trusted to conform to an organization's s...