BACKGROUND Several mortality estimates for the Darfur conflict have been reported since 2004, but few accounted for conflict dynamics such as changing displacement and causes of deaths. We analyse changes over time for crude and cause-specific mortality rates, and assess the effect of displacement on mortality rates. METHODS Retrospective mortality surveys were gathered from an online databas...

We conducted the study described in this paper to investigate the impact of ambient temperature on mortality in the Netherlands during 1979-1997, the impact of heat waves and cold spells on mortality in particular, and the possibility of any heat wave- or cold spell-induced forward displacement of mortality. We found a V-like relationship between mortality and temperature, with an optimum tempe...

BACKGROUND Violence in Darfur, Sudan, has rendered more than one million people internally displaced. An epidemiological study of the effect of armed incursions on mortality in Darfur was needed to provide a basis for appropriate assistance to internally displaced people. METHODS Between April and June, 2004, we did retrospective cluster surveys among 215?400 internally displaced people in fo...

Mortality displacement is the concept that deaths are moved forward in time (e.g., a few days, several months, and years) by exposure from when they would occur without exposure, which common environmental time-series studies. Using concepts of frail population loss life expectancy, it understood mortality may decrease rate ratio (RR). Such decreases thought to be minimal or substantial dependi...

BACKGROUND Few studies have been conducted to investigate the impact of extreme cold events on mortality in subtropical regions. OBJECTIVE In the present study we aimed to investigate the effects of the 2008 cold spell on mortality and the possibility of mortality displacement in three subtropical cities in China. METHODS Daily mortality, air pollution, and weather data were collected from ...

There are a number of applied settings where a response is measured repeatedly over time, and the impact of a stimulus at one time is distributed over several subsequent response measures. In the motivating application the stimulus is an air pollutant such as airborne particulate matter and the response is mortality. However, several other variables (e.g. daily temperature) impact the response ...

Distributed lag models (DLM) are attractive methods for dealing with mortality displacement, however their estimates can have substantial bias when the data is generated by a multi-state model. In particular DLMs are not valid for mortality displacement. Alternative methods are scarce and lack feasibility and validation. We investigate the breakdown of DLM in three state models by means of simu...

The proportion of excess deaths occurring as a result of hot weather that are brought forward by only a short time ("displaced") is important but not easy to estimate. A recent proposal by Saha et al. (Am J Epidemiol. 2014;179(4):467-474) was to estimate this using a "displacement ratio" equal to the sum of deficits of daily deaths below an expected baseline divided by the sum of excesses over ...

displacement. to estimate the difference between the observed and the expected number of daily deaths during and after the heat wave, a predictive model was developed, as described in eAppendix (http://links.lww.com/EDE/A874). We also used the annual mortality data from neighboring Saint Petersburg for comparison (eFigure 1, http://links.lww.com/ EDE/A874).7 the Figure shows observed and expect...

The proportion of people living in protracted displacement, as well as the duration of this displacement, is increasing. International humanitarian standards for services provided in protracted displacement are based on the Sphere Standards, which were formulated using evidence and experience from acute phase emergencies. However, the majority of protracted emergencies are in the post-emergency...