This paper investigates the sources of the widely noticed reduction in the volatility of American business cycles since the mid 1980s. Our analysis of reduced volatility emphasises the sharp decline in the standard deviation of changes in real GDP, of the output gap, and of the infl ation rate. The primary results of the paper are based on a small three-equation macro model that includes equati...

the purpose of this paper is to examine the effects of monetary, fiscal and oil revenue shocks on macroeconomic variables in the framework of rule and discretionary monetary policy. to end this, we use a new keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (dsge) model. given the dominant role of oil in the country, we consider the role of oil shock in the model through different channels. the ...

This paper proposes to investigate whether US monetary policy changed over time by evaluating evidence from the entire yield curve. A regime-switching no-arbitrage term structure model relies on inflation, output and the short interest rate as factors. In a departure from the finance literature, the model is complemented with identifying assumptions that allow the private sector (inflation and ...

This paper investigates whether and how exchange rate movements were taken into account in formulating monetary policy in Australia, Canada, New Zealand and the United Kingdom. We develop and estimate a structural general equilibrium two-sector model with sticky prices and wages, partial indexation on lagged inflation, a combination of both producer currency pricing and local currency pricing f...

A dynamic stochastic general equilibrium monetary model with incomplete asset markets, nominal price rigidities and market imperfections is developed to shed light on the role of exchange rate and its relation with current account dynamics in the formulation of monetary policy. In the recent literature, labelled as new open economy macroeconomics (NOEM), the dynamics of current account do not m...

In this paper, we develop a Bayesian approach to counterfactual analysis of structural change. Contrary to previous analysis based on classical point estimates, this approach provides a straightforward measure of estimation uncertainty for the counterfactual quantity of interest. We apply the Bayesian counterfactual analysis to examine the sources of the volatility reduction in U.S. real GDP gr...

This paper employs a structural vector autoregression (SVAR) model to investigate the monetary policy framework of a small emerging open economy Malaysia, especially how the economy dynamically respond to money, interest rate, exchange rate and foreign shocks. We establish identification conditions to uncover the dynamic effects of monetary policy shocks on various domestic variables. Following...

In this study, we examined the effects of monetary policy shocks on the performance of the Iranian macroeconomy and the banking system, under the different situations of the Basel II and III capital requirements regulations. By developing a DSGE Model and according to its structural shocks, four observable variables including output gap, bank capital adequacy, inflation, and money base growth r...