This article examines the relationship between inflation and inflation uncertainty in the Turkish economy in this period 2004:01-2014:12. This relationship is explored in two ways: a) with the effect of structural breaks; b) without the effect of structural breaks. In fact, with regard to the main structural break have occurred over this period, we examine whether structural break has affected ...

abstract this paper attempts to re-investigate the catching-up (stochastic convergence) hypothesis among the selected 16 oecd countries applying the time series approach of convergence hypothesis with annual data over one century. to reach this aim, we propose a model which specifies a trend function, incorporating both types of structural breaks – that is, sharp breaks and smooth shifts using ...

in a structural time series regression model, binary variables have been used to quantify qualitative or categorical quantitative events such as politic and economic structural breaks, regions, age groups and etc. the use of the binary dummy variables is not reasonable because the effect of an event decreases (increases) gradually over time not at once. the simple and basic idea in this paper i...

The literature on structural breaks focuses on ex post identification of break points that may have occurred in the past. While this question is important, a more challenging problem facing econometricians is to provide forecasts when the data generating process is unstable. The purpose of this paper is to provide a general methodology for forecasting in the presence of model instability. We ma...