There is a wealth of literature documenting the biases and errors associated with judgmentbased forecasting—c.f. (McGlothlin 1956, Tversky and Kahneman 1974, Wright and Ayton 1986, Bolger and Harvey 1998), for example. Mentzer and Bienstock (1998) and Tyebjee (1987) point out that in addition to these problems, judgmental sales forecasts could be distorted by other factors, such as organization...

1. PREFACE 'Consider mechanically integrating judgmental and statistical forecasts instead of making judgmental adjustments to statistical forecasts …Judgmental adjustment (by humans) of (automatically generated statistical forecasts) is actually the least effective way to combine statistical and judgmental forecasts … (because) judgmental adjustment can introduce bias 1 (Mathews and Diamantopo...

Achieving accurate judgment ('judgmental achievement') is of utmost importance in daily life across multiple domains. The lens model and the lens model equation provide useful frameworks for modeling components of judgmental achievement and for creating tools to help decision makers (e.g., physicians, teachers) reach better judgments (e.g., a correct diagnosis, an accurate estimation of intelli...

Reductions in judgmental biases concerning the cost and probability of negative social events are presumed to be mechanisms of treatment for SAD. Methodological limitations of extant studies, however, leave open the possibility that, instead of causing symptom relief, reductions in judgmental biases are correlates or consequences of it. The present study evaluated changes in judgmental biases a...