An algorithm for the identification of a multi-input single-output (MISO) Box-Jenkins model is developed. The method consists of several simple steps: first a high order ARX model is estimated; then the process model is calculated using the so-called Steiglitz-McBride iteration on the filtered inputoutput data; and finally the disturbance model is calculated by estimating an ARMA model of the o...

The evapotranspiration rate has a vital role in agricultural water management. In this paper, ability of Box-Jenkins models in forecasting the reference potential evapotranspiration is estimated. For this purpose meteorological data of Mehrabad synoptic station in Tehran was selected. Using this data and according to eight famous evapotranspiration equations amounts of evapotranspiration were f...

We have studied neural networks as models for time series forecasting, and our research compares the Box-Jenkins method against the neural network method for long and short term memory series. Our work was inspired by previously published works that yielded inconsistent results about comparative performance. We have since experimented with 16 time series of di ering complexity using neural netw...

The group method of data handling technique (GMDH) and Box-Jenkins methods are two wellknown time series forecasting of mathematical modeling. In this paper, we introduce a hybrid modeling which combines the GMDH method with the Box-Jenkins method to model time series data. The Box-Jenkins method was used to determine the useful input variables of GMDH method and then the GMDH method which work...

At the end of every year the Value Line (VL) Corporation publishes its forecasts of the Dow Jones Index and its probable ranges for the coming three years using a three explanatory variable multiple regression model that we call the Value Line Dow Jones (VL-DJ) model. The model is a static time series model. Therefore, forecasts of the Dow Jones Index rely on forecasts of the independent variab...

In an e€ort to forecast daily maximum ozone concentrations, many researchers have developed daily ozone forecasting models. However, this continuing worldwide environmental problem suggests the need for more accurate models. Development of these models is dicult because the meteorological variables and photochemical reactions involved in ozone formation are complex. In this study, a neural net...

This paper introduces nonlinear threshold time series modeling techniques that actuaries can use in pricing insurance products, analyzing the results of experience studies, and forecasting actuarial assumptions. Basic “self-exciting” threshold autoregressive (SETAR) models, as well as heteroscedastic and multivariate SETAR processes, are discussed. Modeling techniques for each class of models a...