The performance of the ARPA-SMR Limited-area Ensemble Prediction System (LEPS), generated by nesting a limited-area model on selected members of the ECMWF targeted ensemble, is evaluated for two flood events that occurred during September 1992. The predictability of the events is studied for forecast times ranging from 2 to 4 days. The extent to which floods localised in time and space can be f...

Meteorological and hydrological centres around the world are looking at ways to improve their capacity to be able to produce and deliver skilful and reliable forecasts of high-impact extreme rainfall and flooding events on a range of prediction timescales (e.g. sub-daily, daily, multi-week, seasonal). Making improvements to extended-range rainfall and flood forecast models, assessing forecast s...

Flood forecasting remains a very important task. Good forecast values with sufficient lead times can help reduce flood damages significantly. This paper proposes two types of black-box model obtained by using multiple regression analysis and backpropagation neural networks in forecasting 6-h water levels at three important stations on the upstream section of the Red River basin, North Vietnam. ...

Downscaling global weather prediction model outputs to individual locations or local scales is a common practice for operational weather forecast in order to correct the model outputs at subgrid scales. This paper presents an empirical-statistical downscaling method for precipitation prediction which uses a feed-forward multilayer perceptron MLP neural network. The MLP architecture was optimize...

A framework for short-term probabilistic forecasting of watershed flood stage conditions using a distributed rainfall-runoff model is proposed. A stochastic rainfall pattern simulation model capable of generating input for a distributed rainfall-runoff model is developed. Generation of rainfall patterns over a 6-hour period is achieved using a translation vector rainfall forecasting process mod...

This paper presents the combination of different precipitation data sets and the distributed hydrological model, in order to examine the flood runoff reproductivity of scattered observation catchments. The precipitation data sets were obtained from observation using rain-gages, satellite based estimate (TRMM), and numerical weather prediction model (NWP), then were coupled with the super tank m...

Water levels and water extents are essential information in flood monitoring and forecasting. Two experimental and complementary ways were explored in order to estimate water level and water extent and forecast them: 1) The estimation of water level through combining water extents derived from earth observation data with elevation from a Digital Elevation Model; 2) The estimation of flood exten...

Possible risks in reservoir flood control and regulation cannot be objectively assessed by deterministic flood forecasts, resulting in the probability of reservoir failure. We demonstrated a risk analysis of reservoir flood routing calculation accounting for inflow forecast uncertainty in a sub-basin of Huaihe River, China. The Xinanjiang model was used to provide deterministic flood forecasts,...

Rainstorm weather systems and storm flood characteristics were studied to explore the relationship between the rainstorm weather system, the type of rainstorm, the cause of the flood and the time of occurrence, and some basic characteristics law of storm floods are summarized in the Second Songhua River Basin (Northeastern China). Then, the periodicity of catastrophic years was identified using...

A watershed simulation and forecasting system is widely used in Finland for simulation of hydrological cycle and for making real-time forecasts. The system is based on a watershed model. This was based originally on the HBV-model and simulates the hydrological cycle using standard meteorological data. The model simulates the whole land area of Finland, including cross-border watersheds. This is...