We investigate the heterogeneous boom and bust patterns across countries that emerge as a result of global shocks. Our analysis sheds light on emergence core periphery countries, joint determination depth recessions tightness credit countries. The model implies interest rates are similar in booms, with larger output growth However, common shock leads to crunch globe gives rise sharper spike dee...

We build a dataset of quarterly hours worked for 14 OECD countries. We document that hours are as volatile as output, that a large fraction of labor adjustment takes place along the intensive margin, and that the volatility of hours relative to output has increased over time. We use these data to reassess the Great Recession and prior recessions. The Great Recession in many countries is a puzzl...

This paper studies the role of differences in patterns production and international trade on business cycle volatility emerging developed economies. We study a multisector small open economy which firms produce commodities manufactures. estimate model to match key cross-sectional time-series across countries. Emerging economies run surpluses deficits manufactures, while sectoral flows are balan...

Organic aerosol (OA) emission ratios (ER) have been characterized for 67 burns during the second Fire Laboratory at Missoula Experiment. These fires involved 19 different species representing 6 major fuels, each of which forms an important contribution to the U.S. biomass burning inventory. Average normalized ΔOA/ΔCO ratios show a high degree of variability, both between and within different fu...

Organic aerosols (OA) can be separated with factor analysis of aerosol mass spectrometer (AMS) data into hydrocarbon-like OA (HOA) and oxygenated OA (OOA). We develop a new method to parameterize H:C of OOA in terms of f43 (ratio of m/z 43, mostly C2H3O, to total signal in the component mass spectrum). Such parameterization allows for the transformation of large database of ambient OOA componen...

We build a new empirical model to estimate the global impact of an increase in volatility US monetary policy shocks. Specifically, we admit time-varying variances local structural shocks from stochastic specification. By allowing for rich dynamic interaction between endogenous variables and setting, find that interest rate uncertainty not only drives output inflation volatility, but also causes...

This paper introduces a new trade model type. It combines the gravity model, well-known in international economics, with network theory. With this approach, complicated trade networks can be algebraically solved in form of systems of linear (differential) equations. Business cycles and productivity shocks can be represented via complex numbers or the Laplace transformation. With the help of thi...

This paper provides clear cut evidence that the slope and curvature factors of the yield curve contain more information about future changes in economic activity than the term spread alone, often used in practice as an indicator of future economic conditions. These two factors constitute independent sources of information about future economic activity, which are o¤set to each other in term spr...