There exist polynomial identities asociated to normal form, which yield an existence and uniqueness theorem. The space of normalized real hypersurfaces has a natural group action. Umbilic point is defined via normal form. A nondegenerate analytic real hypersurface is locally biholomorphic to a real hyperquadric if and only if every point of the real hypersurface is umbilic. 0. Introduction An a...

Can central banks defuse rising stability risks in financial booms by leaning against the wind with higher interest rates? This paper studies state-dependent effects of monetary policy on crisis risk. Based near-universe advanced economy cycles since nineteenth century, we show that discretionary policies during credit and asset price are more likely to trigger crises than prevent them. (JEL E4...

This paper synthesizes recent advances in the theoretical and empirical literature on capital controls. We start by observing that international flows have both benefits costs, but some of these are not internalized individual actors thus constitute externalities. The has identified pecuniary externalities aggregate demand respectively contribute to financial instability recessions. These provi...

This paper characterizes the integration patterns of international currency unions (such as the CFA Franc zone). We empirically explore different features of currency unions, and compare them to countries with sovereign monies by examining the criteria for Mundell’s concept of an optimum currency area. We find that members of currency unions are more integrated than countries with their own cur...

This paper argues that the IMF financial and good technical assistance to Russia in the 1990s has been less than generous. Not only the size of the assistance might have not been adequate but also the timing and actual disbursements of these funds were in sharp discord with pledges. More importantly, the IMF made a number of serious policy mistakes in both design and the implementation of the r...

This paper examines the in ationary consequences of a currency changeover in the catering market. Empirical evidence from the Michelin Red Guide shows that: i) di erently from restaurants in non-euro countries, restaurants in the euro area experienced abnormal price increases just after the changeover, ii) among restaurants in the euro area, tourist restaurants are responsible for most of the a...

We investigate global factors associated with bank capital ‡ows. We formulate a model of the international banking system where global banks interact with local banks. The solution highlights the bank leverage cycle as the determinant of the transmission of …nancial conditions across borders through banking sector capital ‡ows. A distinctive prediction of the model is that local currency apprec...

The paper compares the credibility of currency boards and (standard) pegs. Abandoning a currency board requires a time-consuming legislative process and an abolition will thus be previously expected. Therefore, a currency board solves the time inconsistency problem of monetary policy. However, policy can react to unexpected shocks only with a time lag, thus the threat of large shocks makes the ...

This paper examines the link between currency unions and customs unions. The size of a bloc of countries practising some form of co-ordination of monetary policy is limited by the incentive to free-ride that formation of the bloc creates. However, when the threat of a trade war is introduced, the stable size of the bloc increases. This suggests that a) large currency areas are more likely to em...

This paper compares an Australia-New Zealand currency union to a purely floating exchange rate regime in the context of a structural, two-country open economy model. Micro-foundations support policy assessment by facilitating direct calculation of household welfare. Analysis focuses on changing business cycle volatilities; the role of risk is not considered. At benchmark calibration currency un...