We examine the asymptotic behavior of unit root tests against nonlinear alternatives of the exponential smooth transition type if the data is erroneously nonlinearly transformed. We show analytically and by a Monte Carlo study that the probability of rejecting the correct null of a random walk depends heavily on the type of data transformation. JEL-Numbers: C12, C22, F31

This paper specifies two VAR models for testing efficiency and expectations in foreign exchange markets. The sufficient conditions for efficiency and rational expectations, by imposing restrictions on the VAR parameters, are derived. Based on these models, issues on testing efficiency and rationality are discussed with reference to previous empirical studies in the area.  2002 Elsevier Science...

Following the well-known approach by Adler and Dumas (1984) we evaluate the foreign exchange rate exposure of nations. Results based on data from 27 countries show that national foreign exchange rate exposures are significantly related to the current balance variables of corresponding economies. JEL Classification: G15, F31

Changes in the price of nontradable goods relative to tradable goods account for roughly 50 percent of the cyclical movements in real exchange rates. J.E.L. Classification: F31 ∗UCLA. †Northwestern University, NBER, and Federal Reserve of Chicago. ‡Northwestern University, NBER, and CEPR.

A database of individual forecasters' exchange rate predictions is analyzed. We demonstrate that only a small minority can be classed as rational, that most forecasts are inferior to easily available alternatives, and that relatively good performance in one period is not a reliable indicator of relatively good performance in subsequent periods. JEL Classification Number: F31

792 © 2013 Guilford Publications, Inc. †deceased. This research was supported in part by NIH fellowship F31-MH092000 (J.B.F), Harvard Psychology Department Rand grant (K.N.), and NSF research grant BCS-0435547 (N.A.). Correspondence concerning this article should be addressed to Jonathan Freeman, Department of Psychological & Brain Sciences, Dartmouth College, 6207 Moore Hall, Hanover, NH 03755...

This article empirically examines the relationship between order sizes and spreads in the foreign exchange market based on a FX dealer’s quotes. It is found that spreads are independent of order sizes in the inter-dealer market, but they are negatively correlated in the customer market. JEL classification: F31; G14

The breakdown of the Bretton Woods system and the adoption of generalized ‡oating exchange rates ushered in a new era of exchange rate volatility and uncertainty. This increased volatility lead economists to search for economic models able to describe observed exchange rate behavior. The present is a technical Appendix to Cerrato et al. (2009) and presents detailed simulations of the proposed m...

This study examines the effects of taxes on the real exchange rate through their marginal impacts on economic activity. We develop a model that shows that an increase in the capital interest tax rate leads to real domestic currency depreciation while an increase in wage or consumption tax rates lead to a real domestic currency appreciation. These theoretical findings are supported by an empiric...

This paper assesses the day of the week effect of the daily depreciation of the Turkish lira (TL) against the US dollar (USD) and its volatility. The empirical evidence from Turkey presented here suggests that Thursdays are associated with higher and Mondays with lower depreciation rates compared to those of Wednesdays. Moreover, Mondays and Tuesdays are associated with higher volatility than W...