Disruptive technologies and novel aircraft generations represent a potential approach to address the ambitious emission reduction goals in aviation. However, introduction of innovative concepts is time-consuming process, which might not necessarily yield an optimal design for given flight mission within defined time frame. In order need structured more exhaustive search concept generations, Adv...

The review presented in this paper examines the evidence on use of expert judgment, formal models, and a combination of these two approaches when estimating (forecasting) software development work effort. Sixteen relevant studies were identified and reviewed. The review found that the average accuracy of expert judgment-based effort estimates was higher than the average accuracy of the models i...

 One of the challenges managers face when trying to understand complex, technological systems (in their efforts to mitigate system risks) is the quantification of accident probability, particularly in the case of rare events. Once this risk information has been quantified, managers and decision makers can use it to develop appropriate policies, design projects, and/or allocate resources that w...

We review the applications of structured expert judgment uncertainty quantification using the "classical model" developed at the Delft University of Technology over the last 17 years (Cooke, 1991). These involve 45 expert panels, performed under contract with problem owners who reviewed and approved the results. With a few exceptions, all these applications involved the use of seed variables; t...

Using expert judgment data from the TU Delft's expert judgment data base, we compare the performance of different weighting schemes, namely equal weighting, performance based weighting from the classical model (Cooke, 1991), social network weighting and likelihood weighting. The picture that emerges with regard to social network weights is rather mixed. SN theory does not provide an alternative...

Expertise m what is it? Expertise is the ability of one human within an organization to outperform a similarly educated and informed peer group in discrete, repetitive tasks involving decision-making and risk assessment. Expertise is best measured by the degree to which an individual’s performance provides proprietary advantage to his organization. Bright people with exceptional ways of accompl...

The variousmechanisms that represent the know-howof decision-makers are exposed to a common weakness, namely, a lack of consistency. To overcome this weakness within AHP (analytic hierarchy process), we propose a framework that enables balancing consistency and expert judgment. We specifically focus on a linearization process for streamlining the trade-off between expert reliability and synthet...