Data assimilation refers to the process of estimating a system's state from a time series of measurements (which may be noisy or incomplete) in conjunction with a model for the system's time evolution. Here we demonstrate the applicability of a recently developed data assimilation method, the local ensemble transform Kalman filter, to nonlinear, high-dimensional, spatiotemporally chaotic flows ...

Phytoplankton are photosynthetic, single-celled organisms producing almost half of all oxygen on Earth and play a central role as prey for higher organisms, making them irreplaceable in the marine food web. As Global Change proceeds, imposing rapidly intensifying selection pressures, phytoplankton forced to undergo evolution, local extinction, or redistribution, with potentially cascading effec...

It is often desirable to describe information derived from the cumulative experience of experts in a quantitative and probabilistic form. Pertinent examples include assessing the reliability of alternative models or methods of data analysis, estimating the reliability of data in cases where this can not be measured, and estimating ranges and probable distributions of rock properties and archite...

OBJECTIVE We aimed to assess the feasibility of achieving the goal of Mexican AIDS mortality in the Millennium Development Goals, nationally and by state. METHODS For the period 1990-2013, we estimated annual rates of decline/increase in AIDS mortality according to five-year interval, using published data from the Mexican Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía and Consejo Nacional de P...