In this paper Semi-Markov models are used to forecast the triple dimensions of next earthquake occurrences. Each earthquake can be investigated in three dimensions including temporal, spatial and magnitude. Semi-Markov models can be used for earthquake forecasting in each arbitrary area and each area can be divided into several zones. In Semi-Markov models each zone can be considered as a sta...

Abstract There is a sparse number of credible source models available from largemagnitude past earthquakes. A stochastic source-model-generation algorithm thus becomes necessary for robust risk quantification using scenario earthquakes. We present an algorithm that combines the physics of fault ruptures as imaged in laboratory earthquakes with stress estimates on the fault constrained by field ...

The physics of earthquake triggering together with simple assumptions of self-similarity impose the existence of a minimum magnitude m0 below which earthquakes do not trigger other earthquakes. Noting that the magnitude md of completeness of seismic catalogs has no reason to be the same as the magnitude m0 of the smallest triggering earthquake, we use quantitative fits and maximum likelihood in...

High-amplitude seismic waves from the Mw 7.0 Kumamoto earthquake of April 16, 2016, triggered another large earthquake 80 km to the NE roughly 30 s later. The source was located at shallow depths beneath the Yufuin geothermal field, Oita Prefecture, Japan, and the event magnitude was approximately 5.9. To date, this is one of the clearest known examples of a remotely triggered large earthquake....

Sediments tell a tsunami story Trying to understand where major earthquakes and tsunamis might occur requires analysis of the sediments pouring into a subduction zone. Thick sediments were expected to limit earthquake and tsunami size in the Sumatran megathrust event in 2004, but the magnitude 9.2 earthquake defied expectations. Hüpers et al. analyzed sediments recovered from the Sumatran megat...