Earthquake mitigation efforts in the United States currently use long-term probabilistic hazard assessments and rapid post-earthquake notification to reduce the potential damage of earthquakes. Here we present the seismological design for and demonstrate the feasibility of a short-term hazard warning system. Using data from past earthquakes, we show that our Earthquake Alarm System (ElarmS) cou...

Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis is a technique for estimating the annual rate of exceedance of a specified ground motion at a site due to the known and suspected earthquake sources. A Monte-Carlo approach is utilized to estimate the seismic hazard at a site. This method uses numerous resampling of an earthquake catalog to construct synthetic catalogs to evaluate the ground motion hazard a...

Earthquake prediction has two potentially compatible but distinctly different objectives: (a) phenomena that provide information about the future earthquake hazard useful to those who live in earthquake-prone regions and (b) phenomena causally related to the physical processes governing failure on a fault that will improve our understanding of those processes. For seismic hazard analysis in Vra...

This paper is a progress report of a MCEER research project on the development of multihazard protection technologies for critical facilities. One important component is to consider earthquake and earthquake induced hazards (e.g. fire, haz-mat leakage, power outrage, etc). This paper is concerned with earthquake and subsequent fire hazards. Records from historical earthquakes show that sometime...

Following the devastating 2008 Wenchuan earthquake that ruptured the central–northern segments of the Longmenshan fault in Sichuan, China, many studies assessed its impact on other major faults in this region (e.g., Parsons et al., 2008; Toda et al., 2008). On 20 April 2013, theMw 6.6 Lushan earthquake ruptured the southern segment of the Longmenshan fault, allowing these assessments to be test...

The February 21, 2008, Wells earthquake (MW=6.0) occurred in a region of northeastern Nevada where the seismicity has historically been low relative to western Nevada. In a region of area of approximately10 5 km 2 of northeastern Nevada, based rates of smaller earthquakes in the region prior to 2008, earthquakes of MW=6.0 or larger are expected with a rate of about 0.01 per year. The probabilit...

This study develops a novel simulation-based procedure for the estimation of the likelihood that seismic intensity (in terms of spectral acceleration) and tsunami inundation (in terms of wave height), at a particular location, will exceed given hazard levels. The procedure accounts for a common physical rupture process for shaking and tsunami. Numerous realizations of stochastic slip distributi...

Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) is classically performed through the Cornell approach by using a uniform earthquake distribution over the source area and a given magnitude range. This study aims at extending the PSHA approach to the case of a characteristic earthquake scenario associated with an active fault. The approach integrates PSHA with a high-frequency deterministic techniqu...

one of the most important problem and issues in metropolises is natural hazards and the earthquake is the most important of them in developing countries. according to this theme, comprehensive disaster management especially earthquake is an important factor to safe people life and evaluate risks by complete and update information bank, exact and modern hardware and gis and karmania hazard softw...