Several researchers have recently documented a large reduction in output volatility. In contrast, this paper examines whether output has become more predictable. Using forecasts from the Federal Reserve Greenbooks, I find the evidence is somewhat mixed. Output seems to have become more predictable at short horizons, but not necessarily at longer horizons. The reduction in unpredictability is mu...

A comparison of the point forecasts and the central tendencies of probability distributions of in‡ation and output growth of the SPF indicates that the point forecasts are sometimes optimistic relative to the probability distributions. We consider and evaluate a number of possible explanations for this …nding, including the degree of uncertainty concerning the future, computational costs, delay...

Google Econometrics and Unemployment Forecasting The current economic crisis requires fast information to predict economic behavior early, which is difficult at times of structural changes. This paper suggests an innovative new method of using data on internet activity for that purpose. It demonstrates strong correlations between keyword searches and unemployment rates using monthly German data...

A wave matrix is presented consisting of price and quantity elasticities. Its eigenvalues determine the feasible cycles of a dynamic Leontief system. A numerical illustration and a 20-year trajectory are computed with the aid of a seven sector USA matrix for the year 1958. A short discussion of further work required closes the paper. © 2000 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. JEL classif...

This is a discussion of the paper "Simple versus Optimal Rules as Guides to Policy" by Brock, Durlauf, Nason and Rondina (BDNR) presented in November 2006 at Carnegie-Mellon University under the auspices of the Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy. I review the authors’arguments, present a few suggestions for extension and outline where I think at least one strand of the litera...

We consider the possibility that respondents to the Survey of Professional Forecasters round their probability forecasts of the event that real output will decline in the future. We make various assumptions about how forecasters round their forecasts, including that individuals have constant patterns of responses across forecasts. Our primary interests are the impact of rounding on assessments ...

This paper brings together two important but hitherto largely unrelated areas of the forecasting literature, density forecasting and forecast combination. It proposes a simple data-driven approach to direct combination of density forecasts using optimal weights. These optimal weights are those weights that minimise the ‘distance’, as measured by the Kullback-Leibler Information Criterion, betwe...

The empirical success of Real Business Cycle (RBC) models is often judged by their ability to explain the behavior of a multitude of real macroeconomic variables using a single exogenous shock process. This paper shows that in a model with the same basic structure as the bare bones RBC model, monetary, cost-push or preference shocks are equally successful at explaining the behavior of macroecon...

Worm Expulsion in SMC-Specific IL-4Ra–Deficient Mice William G. C. Horsnell, Antony J. Cutler, J. Claire Hoving, Helen Mearns, Elmarie Myburgh, Berenice Arendse, Fred D. Finkelman, Gary K. Owens, Dave Erle, Frank Brombacher doi: 10.1371/journal.ppat.0030001 In PLoS Pathogens, volume 3, issue 1: The third author’s name was incorrectly listed as Claire J. Hoving. The correct name is J. Claire Hov...