This study applies an approximate dynamic factor model to forecast three macroeconomic variables of Taiwan – inflation based on consumer price index, unemployment rate, and industrial production growth rate. Our data contain 95 macroeconomic variables of Taiwan and 89 international time series during 1981Q1-2006Q4. We perform out-of-sample forecasting from a rolling-window estimation scheme and...

Macroeconomic Effects of Short-Term Training Measures on the Matching Process in Western Germany This paper investigates the macroeconomic effects of short term training measures on the matching processes in West Germany. The empirical analysis is based on regional data for local employment office districts for the period from January 2003 to December 2004. The empirical model relies on a dynam...

Article history: Received 23 February 2012 Received in revised form 18 October 2012 Accepted 18 October 2012 Available online 24 November 2012 This study estimates a dynamic latent factor model of the yield curve for Canada using a newly constructed data series on the term structure of constant-maturity, zero-coupon interest rates. The state-space representation of the model is used to assess t...

We measure global real and nominal macroeconomic uncertainty and analyze its impact on individual countries’ macroeconomic performance. Global uncertainty is measured through the conditional variances of global factors in inflation and output growth, estimated from a bivariate dynamic factor model with GARCH errors. The impact of global uncertainty is measured by including the conditional varia...

1. To estimate a small quarterly macroeconomic model of the UK, based on a VAR model of a number of ‘core’ macroeconomic variables, and employing recently developed econometric techniques to test and impose restrictions on the long run relationships of the model. Also, to analyse the short run dynamic properties of the model and to investigate the role of exogenous variables, all with a view to...

In this paper we study macroeconomic stabilization in the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) using a dynamic game approach. With the aid of a stylized macroeconomic model, this paper analyzes the transmission and interaction of national fiscal policies and monetary policy of the European Central Bank (ECB) in the EMU. A special focus is on the effects of labor market institutions in the particip...

In this study, a model of Bayesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) from Real Business Cycles (RBC) approach with the aim of identifying the factors shaping price bubbles of Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE) was specified. The above-mentioned model was conducted in two scenarios. In the first scenario, the baseline model with sentiment shock was examined. In this model, stock price bubbl...

The empirical success of Real Business Cycle (RBC) models is often judged by their ability to explain the behavior of a multitude of real macroeconomic variables using a single exogenous shock process. This paper shows that in a model with the same basic structure as the bare bones RBC model, monetary, cost-push or preference shocks are equally successful at explaining the behavior of macroecon...