This paper develops a model to value defaultable bonds in emerging markets. Default occurs when some signaling process hits a pre-defined default barrier. The signaling variable is considered to be some macro-economic variables such as foreign exchange rates. The dynamics of the default barrier depend on the volatility and the drift of the signaling variable. We derive a closedform solution of ...

Brockman and Turtle (2003) develop a barrier option framework to show that default barriers are significantly positive. Most implied barriers are typically larger than the book value of corporate liabilities. We show theoretically and empirically that this result is biased due to the approximation of the market value of corporate assets by the sum of the market value of equity and the book valu...

We study the gain of an insider having private information which concerns the default risk of a counterparty. More precisely, the default time τ is modelled as the first time a stochastic process hits a random barrier L. The insider knows this barrier (as it can be the case for example for the manager of the counterparty), whereas standard investors only observe its value at the default time. A...

In this paper we develop structural first passage models (AT1P and SBTV) with time-varying volatility and characterized by high tractability, moving from the original work of Brigo and Tarenghi (2004, 2005) [19] [20] and Brigo and Morini (2006)[15]. The models can be calibrated exactly to credit spreads using efficient closed-form formulas for default probabilities. Default events are caused by...

The recent accounting scandals at Enron, WorldCom, and Tyco were related to the misrepresentation of liabilities. We provide a structural model of correlated multi-firm default, in which public bond investors are uncertain about the liability-dependent barrier at which individual firms default. Investors form prior beliefs on the barriers, which they update with the default status information o...

We propose a multi-firm first-passage credit model in which investors have incomplete information. In this model, investors cannot observe a firm’s value process and its default barrier process. The model accounts for the short term risk inherent in default events, the market-wide impact of defaults on security prices due to counterparty relations between firms, and the cyclical default correla...

First passage model specifies a credit default, when the underlying drops below a certain barrier. An investment failure often occurs unexpectedly and involves significant losses to the project value, which makes a great similarity to a default event preventing the investor paying back its debt. In this paper we aim to link the two theories, where an investment failure is determined through the...

In this work we develop a tractable structural model with analytical default probabilities depending on a random default barrier and possibly random volatility ideally associated with a scenario based underlying firm debt. We show how to calibrate this model using a chosen number of reference Credit Default Swap (CDS) market quotes. In general this model can be seen as a possible extension of t...