This paper uses yearly panel data on OECD countries to analyze the relationship between growth and the cyclicality of government debt. We develop new time-varying estimates of the cyclicality of public debt. Our main findings can be summarized as follows: (i) less procyclical public debt growth can have significantly positive effects on productivity growth, in particular when financial developm...

Real Wage Cyclicality of Job Stayers, Within-Company Job Movers, and Between-Company Job Movers Using the British New Earnings Survey Panel Data (NESPD) for the period 1975 to 2001 we estimate the wage cyclicality of job stayers (those remaining within single jobs in a given company), within company job movers, and between company job movers. We also examine how the proportion of internal and e...

We provide a representation for the nonmyopic optimal portfolio of an agent consuming only at the terminal horizon when the single state variable follows a general diffusion process and the market consists of one risky asset and a risk-free asset. The key term of our representation is a new object that we call the “rate of macroeconomic fluctuation” whose properties are fundamental for the port...

Real Wage Cyclicality in Germany and the UK: New Results Using Panel Data This paper compares the cyclical behaviour of male real wages in Germany and the UK using the German Socio-Economic Panel 1984-2002 and the British Household Panel Survey 1991-2004. We distinguish between job stayers (remaining in the same job), and withinand between-company job movers. Stayers are the large majority in b...

Government spending policy has an important macroeconomic stabilization role. We empirically revisit the computation of fiscal cyclicality measures by employing a novel time-varying approach while explicitly dealing with endogeneity concerns. Analyzing sample 36 advanced economies from 1970 to 2015, focus paper is on side budget and its components. The average government −0.9, pointing counter-...

We document the sources behind costs of job loss over the business cycle using administrative data from Germany. Losses in annual earnings in Germany after displacement are large, persistent, and highly cyclical, nearly doubling in size during economic downturns. We show that part of these losses and their cyclicality is driven by unemployment. However, the longer-term earnings losses we find a...

In this paper three hypotheses concerning the cyclicality of U.S. consumers’ expenditure are proposed. These hypotheses are based upon the distinction between expenditure on durable and non-durable goods. It is argued that durability will lead to increased cyclical sensitivity and that this increased cyclicality will be of an asymmetric nature. The asymmetric adjustment will be of the form of d...