In this work we extend a well-known model from arrested physical systems, and employ it in order to efficiently depict different currency pairs of foreign exchange market price fluctuation distributions. We consider the exchange rate price in the time range between 2010 and 2016 at yearly time intervals and resolved at one minute frequency. We then fit the experimental datasets with this model,...

This article examines the impact of COVID-19 pandemic on accuracy forecasts for three currency pairs before and after its outbreak based neural networks (ELM, MLP LSTM) in terms factors: forecast horizon, hyper parameterisation network type.

 The foreign exchange market (FX market) accounts for 40% of the total volume of the world’s e-commerce by its own. Based on statistics, sometimes up to 90 per cent of the traders lose their total capital in this market just within six months to one year and leave this market. The probability of loss in the FX market can be estimated by probability theory. The present paper intends to demonst...

This paper investigates the bivariate dependence structure for three pairs of exchange rates measured against the US dollar: Euro and Japanese yen, Euro and British pound, Euro and Swiss franc, over the period January 1994 to November 2007. The Deutsche mark (DM) is used for the pre-euro period. By using non-parametric plots and copula models estimated by semi-parametric methods, we are able to...

In searching a market-neutral arbitrage strategy in forex market, we took a portfolio of three major currency pairs, EUR-USD, USD-JPY, and EUR-JPY. There are eight approaches, different cases of short and long positions; for example buying 1st and selling two others, etc. Historical daily FX rates were gathered since January 1990 until February 2011. Monthly covariances between daily growth rat...

Candlestick charts are a type of financial chart for tracking the movement of securities. Some of the earliest technical trading analysis was used to track prices of rice in the 18th century. Some investors find them more visually appealing than the standard bar charts and the price actions easier to interpret. In technical analysis, a candlestick pattern is a movement in prices shown graphical...

We document that cross-sectional FX correlation dispersion is countercyclical, as FX pairs with high average correlation become more correlated in bad times whereas pairs with low average correlation become less correlated. We show that currencies that perform badly (well) during periods of high crosssectional disparity in conditional FX correlation yield high (low) average excess returns, sugg...

Abstract Using monthly headline inflation data covering 184 countries for the period between January 1971 and December 2020, this paper investigates role of standard gravity variables on convergence across country pairs. The analysis by unit root tests is based ten-year rolling windows to control potential structural changes over time, whereas corresponding results are connected in preceding ye...