This paper analyzes the impact of country specific risk on a firm’s choice between serving a foreign market through exports or affiliates sales. We find that country pairs with less correlated business cycles trade more, relative to multinational production. Moreover, the stochastic properties of world output fluctuations affect the cross country patterns of trade flows and foreign affiliate sa...

Using a recently introduced nonparametric test, I investigate two important and distinct asymmetries in cross-country quarterly macroeconomic time series. Asymmetries are suggested by many theories (old and new), and those discovered aid in the selection of the appropriate nonlinear time series representation (useful, for example, in both forecasting and policy guidance). Further, asymmetries c...

We propose and analyze a two-country model of endogenous innovation cycles. In autarky, innovation fluctuations in the two countries are decoupled. As the trade cost falls and intra-industry trade rises, they become synchronized. This is because globalization leads to the alignment of innovation incentives across firms based in different countries, as they operate in the increasingly global (he...

We study the effects of trade integration for the conduct of monetary policy in a two-country model with heterogeneous firms, endogenous producer entry, and labor market frictions. The model reproduces important empirical regularities related to international trade, namely synchronization of business cycles across trading partners and reallocation of market shares across producers. Three key re...

Business cycle statistics di er widely across countries for some aggregates, especially for trade-related variables. Part of these variations relates to the size of the economies and to their distance from each other. This paper asks whether a three-country model is able to display the marked diversity of business cycle statistics observed across countries. The model is calibrated to two speci ...