Governments and societies in 2020 2021 have been facing three interconnected crises—COVID-19 the health crisis, an economic crisis resulting from a social around inclusion equity. The magnitude of these crises, their nature, vary across countries, but no country has left untouched. governance responses to crises varied markedly, both terms character success. This paper discusses good, bad, mere...

Financial crises are supposed to be rare events, yet they occur quite often. According to Reinhart and Rogoff (2009), investors suffer from “this time is different” syndrome, failing to see crises coming because they do not recognize similarities among the different pre-crisis bubbles. As a result, each crisis surprises investors. Economists typically model financial crises as responses to shoc...

Ravi Bansal and Amir Yaron (2004) developed the Long Run Risk (LRR) model which emphasizes the role of long run risks, that is, low-frequency movements in consumption growth rates and volatility, in accounting for a wide range of asset pricing puzzles. In this article we present a generalized LRR model, which allows us to study the role of cyclical fluctuations and macroeconomic crises on asset...

We assess empirical evidence and theoretical work on the determinants of the fiscal multiplier. Recent empirical literature suggests that short-run spending multipliers are larger under fixed exchange rate regimes, in economic downturns and during financial crises. However, the evidence on their magnitude under fiscal stress is mixed. Using a stylised model of a small open economy, we carry out...

An accurate quantitative definition of financial crisis requires a universal and robust scale for measuring market shocks. Following Zumbach et al. (2000) and Maillet et Michel (2003), we propose a new quantitative measure of financial disturbances, which captures the heterogeneity of investor horizons – from day traders to pension funds. The indicator resides on a multi-resolution analysis of ...

We study the connection between banking crises and non-life insurance consumption in 139 countries from 1988 to 2010. After controlling for output, we find a negative excess decline in non-life insurance consumption after the occurrence of a banking crisis only in countries heavily depending on bank credit. The primary contributing factor is motor insurance which loses 113% of the annual premiu...

The simultaneous determination of financial default and political crises is studied in an open economy model. Political crises accompany default in equilibrium because of an information transmission conflict between the government and the public. Multiple equilibria are possible: if foreign lenders are pessimistic about the country’s stability, they demand a high interest on the debt, exacerbat...

Since the seismic behavior of the earth’s energy (which follows from the power law distribution) can be similarly seen in the energy realized by the stock markets, in this paper we consider a statistical study for comparing the financial crises and the earthquakes. For this end, the TP statistic, proposed by Pisarenko and et al. (2004), is employed for estimating the critical point or the lower...

The martensitic–austenitic phase transformation of a polycrystalline shape memory alloys (SMA) occurs gradually over a range of temperatures even though the monocrystal undergoes a first-order transition (at a single temperature). Factors such as material inhomogeneities and internal stresses in a polycrystal are believed to cause the spread in transformation temperatures. In this work, we assu...