Continuous-time autoregressive moving average (CARMA) processes with a nonnegative kernel and driven by a non-decreasing Lévy process constitute a useful and very general class of stationary, non-negative continuous-time processes which have been used, in particular, for the modelling of stochastic volatility. Brockwell, Davis and Yang (2011) considered the fitting of CARMA models to closely an...

CARMA is an advisory system for rangeland grasshopper infestations that demonstrates how AI technology can deliver expert advice to compensate for cutbacks in public services. CARMA uses two knowledge sources for the key task of predicting forage consumption by grasshoppers: (1) cases obtained by asking a group of experts to solve representative hypothetical problems and (2) a numeric model of ...

Recently there has been much work on developing models that are suitable for analysing the volatility of a continuous time process. One general approach is to define a volatility process as the convolution of a kernel with a non-decreasing Lévy process, which is non-negative if the kernel is non-negative.Within the framework of time continuous autoregressive moving average (CARMA) processes, we...

In order to allow contemporaneous autoregressive moving average (CARMA) models to be properly applied to hydrological time series, important statistical properties of the CARMA family of models are developed. For calibrating the model parameters, efficient joint estimation procedures are investigated and compared to a set of uivariate estimation procedures. It is shown that joint estimation pro...

Collective Adaptive Systems (CAS) are heterogeneous populations of autonomous task-oriented agents that cooperate on common goals forming a collective system. This class of systems is typically composed of a huge number of interacting agents that dynamically adjust and combine their behaviour to achieve specific goals. Existing tools and languages are typically not able to describe the complex ...

Collective Adaptive Systems (CAS) are heterogeneous populations of autonomous task-oriented agents that cooperate on common goals forming a collective system. This class of systems is typically composed of a huge number of interacting agents that dynamically adjust and combine their behaviour to achieve specific goals. Existing tools and languages are typically not able to describe the complex ...

This position paper describes how the combination of the Model-Driven Development (MDD) and Component-Based Software Engineering (CBSE) paradigms can support project monitoring and control, and project risk reduction. The core principle for this is articulated and named CARMA, and our research agenda and preliminary results are described. Through interviews, industry input, process simulation, ...

CARMA is a decision-support system for grasshopper infestations that has been successfully used since 1996. Rising treatment costs coupled with shrinking rangeland profit margins increasingly demand accurate selection of the most cost-effective responses to grasshopper infestations, and CARMA fills that need. In the process CARMA provides advice regarding grasshopper population management optio...

Space and movement through space play an important role in many collective adaptive systems (CAS). CAS consist of multiple components interacting to achieve some goal in a system or environment that can change over time. When these components operate in space, then their behaviour can be affected by where they are located in that space. Examples include the possibility of communication between ...