Climate projections for the fourth assessment report1 (AR4) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) were based on scenarios from the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios2 (SRES) and simulations of the third phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project3 (CMIP3). Since then, a new set of four scenarios (the representative concentration pathways or RCPs) was designed4. Clima...

Increased heat-related mortality is projected to be among the major impacts of climate change on human health, and the United States urban Northeast region is likely to be particularly vulnerable. In support of regional adaptation planning, quantitative information is needed on potential future health responses at the urban and regional scales. Here, we present future projections of heat-relate...

A necessary condition for a good probabilistic forecast is that the forecast system is shown to be reliable: forecast probabilities should equal observed probabilities verified over a large number of cases. As climate change trends are now emerging from the natural variability, we can apply this concept to climate predictions and compute the reliability of simulated local and regional temperatu...

We estimate, for current and future climates, the annual probability of areally averaged hurricane rain of Hurricane Harvey's magnitude by downscaling large numbers of tropical cyclones from three climate reanalyses and six climate models. For the state of Texas, we estimate that the annual probability of 500 mm of area-integrated rainfall was about 1% in the period 1981-2000 and will increase ...

This essay examines the extent to which we can expect Indigenous Knowledge, understanding, and voices on climate change ('Indigenous content') to be captured in WGII of the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5), based on an analysis of chapter authorship. Reviewing the publishing history of 309 chapter authors (CAs) to WGII, we document 9 (2.9%) to have published on climate change and Indigenous p...

2 ABSTRACT Long-standing biases of climate models limit the skills of climate prediction and projection. Overlooked are tropical Indian Ocean (IO) errors. Based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) multi-model ensemble, the present study identifies a common error pattern in climate models that resembles the IO Dipole (IOD) mode of interannual variability in nature, with ...

In this study, the termination criteria at each drought response stage were shown to increase storage volume while maintaining stability of water supply service during in multi-purpose dams. For 52 Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5/8.5 scenarios IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) fifth assessment report (AR5), dam inflows calculated through precipitation-runoff modeli...

Indonesia is an archipelagic country located on the equator. The issue of climate change has become a global that impacted several sectors in recently. presence Fifth Assessment Report Intergovernmental Panel Climate Change (IPCC) contributed to conducting studies flood and drought events. This review paper summarized 16 published papers have gone through peer-review, both form publications jou...

Evaluation and communication of the relative degree of certainty in assessment findings are key cross-cutting issues for the three Working Groups of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. A goal for the Fifth Assessment Report, which is currently under development, is the application of a common framework with associated calibrated uncertainty language that can be used to characterize f...