Risk identification, impact assessment, and response planning constitute three building blocks of project risk management. Correspondingly, three types of interactions could be envisioned between risks, between impacts of several risks on a portfolio component, and between several responses. While the interdependency of risks is a well-recognized issue, the other two types of interactions remai...

In this paper, we discuss the use of Bayesian belief networks as a tool for enhancing social network analysis. Traditional social network analysis (SNA) primarily uses graph-theoretic algorithms to compute properties of nodes in a network. However, these algorithms assume a degree of completeness and reliability of the social network data, which cannot always be assured. Applying Bayesian belie...

This paper incorporates Belief Propagation into an instance of Estimation of Distribution Algorithms called Estimation of Bayesian Networks Algorithm. Estimation of Bayesian Networks Algorithm learns a Bayesian network at each step. The objective of the proposed variation is to increase the search capabilities by extracting information of the, computationally costly to learn, Bayesian network. ...

This paper presents a new deterministic approximation technique in Bayesian networks. This method, “Expectation Propagation,” unifies two previous techniques: assumed-density filtering, an extension of the Kalman filter, and loopy belief propagation, an extension of belief propagation in Bayesian networks. Loopy belief propagation, because it propagates exact belief states, is useful for a limi...

A participatory integrated (social, economic, environmental) approach based on causal loop diagram, Bayesian belief networks and evolutionary multiobjective optimisation is proposed for efficient water resources management. The proposed methodology incorporates all the conflicting objectives in the decision making process. Causal loop diagram allows a range of different factors to be considered...

We describe an environment that considerably simplifies the process of generating Bayesian belief networks. The system has been implemented on readily available, inexpensive hardware, and provides clarity and high performance. We present an introduction to Bayesian belief networks, discuss algorithms for inference with these networks, and delineate the classes of problems that can be solved wit...

Incorporating prior knowledge into black-box classifiers is still much of an open problem. We propose a hybrid Bayesian methodology that consists in encoding prior knowledge in the form of a (Bayesian) belief network and then using this knowledge to estimate an informative prior for a black-box model (e.g. a multilayer perceptron). Two technical approaches are proposed for the transformation of...