BACKGROUND Road traffic accident (RTA) is one of the main causes of trauma and known as a growing public health concern worldwide, especially in developing countries. Assessing the trend of fatalities in the past years and forecasting it enables us to make the appropriate planning for prevention and control. OBJECTIVES This study aimed to assess the trend of RTAs and forecast it in the next y...

Abstract: With the development of Chinese economy, the building industry has been becoming one of pillar industries. The enormous investment of engineering construction, together with its labor-intensive character, has made building safety a serious problem. Heavy casualties and serious property loss take place every year. In order to reduce the building accident and improve the management leve...

Reserving in general insurance is often done using chain-laddertype methods. We propose a method aimed at situations where there is a sudden change in the economic environment affecting the policies for all accident years in the reserving triangle. It is shown that methods for forecasting non-stationary time series are helpful. We illustrate the method using data published in Barnett and Zehnwi...

In many applications, there are multiple time series that are hierarchically organised and can be aggregated at several different levels in groups based on products, geography or some other features. A common constraint is that forecasts of the disaggregated series need to add up to the forecasts of the aggregated series. This is known as "coherence". We develop a new reconciliation forecasting...

The prediction of mine accident is the basis of aviation safety assessment and decision making. Gray prediction is suitable for such kinds of system objects with few data, short time, and little fluctuation, and Markov chain theory is just suitable for forecasting stochastic fluctuating dynamic process. Analyzing the coal mine accident human error cause, combining the advantages of both Gray pr...

This Transportation Research Board publication contains the following papers: Assessment of Existing General Purpose Data Bases for Highway Safety Analysis, K.K. Mak, J.G. Viner, and L.I. Griffin, III; Accident Data as a Tool for Highway Risk Management, D.S. Turner and C.W. Colson; Generalized Loglinear Models of Truck Accident Rates, F.F. Saccomanno and C. Buyco; Estimation of Wet Pavement Ex...