Annual global CO2 emission forecasts at 2100 span 10 to 40 billion tonnes. Modeling work over the past decade has not narrowed this range nor provided much guidance about probabilities. We examine the time-series properties of historical per capita CO2 emissions and conclude that per capita global emissions are stationary without trend, and have a constant mean of 1.14 tonnes per person with st...

The discounted utilitarian criterion for infinite horizon social choice has been criticized for treating generations unequally. We propose an extended rank-discounted utilitarian (ERDU) criterion instead. The criterion amounts to discounted utilitarianism on non-decreasing streams, but it treats all generations impartially: discounting becomes the mere expression of intergenerational inequality...

This paper quantifies how international trade affects CO2 emissions and analyzes the welfare consequences of regulating the CO2 emissions from shipping. To this end the paper describes a model of trade and the environment, compiles new data on the CO2 emissions from shipping, and estimates key parameters using panel data regressions. Results show that the benefits of international trade exceed ...

We consider whether pollution-intensive FDI tends to outflow from a country which maintains stringent environmental regulations and into countries with weak environmental regulations. We consider this issue by incorporating the predictions from the recent heterogeneous firm models of international trade into an empirical model of outward FDI by UK firms. We find that environmental regulations a...

The opening of new markets or trade routes has resulted in the deliberate or accidental introduction of new species, while the growth in the volume of trade has increased the frequency of species introductions. We model the connection between landscape heterogeneity, resource extraction, the level of biodiversity, and the level of trade. We show that the invasion risks of trade reduce the socia...

Fiscal instruments are potentially among the most effective, and cost-effective, options for addressing externalities related to poor air quality, urban road congestion, and greenhouse gases. This paper takes a case study, focused on Mauritius (a pioneer in the use of green taxes) to illustrate how existing taxes, especially on fuels and vehicles, could be reformed to better address these exter...

This paper introduces endogenous and directed technical change in a growth model with environmental constraints. The final good is produced from "dirty" and "clean" inputs. We show that: (i) when inputs are sufficiently substitutable, sustainable growth can be achieved with temporary taxes/subsidies that redirect innovation toward clean inputs; (ii) optimal policy involves both "carbon taxes" a...

Sea level rise will cause spatial shifts in economic activity over the next 200 years. Using a spatially disaggregated, dynamic model of world economy, this paper estimates consequences probabilistic projections local sea changes. Under an intermediate scenario greenhouse gas emissions, permanent flooding is projected to reduce global real GDP by 0.19 percent present value terms. By year 2200, ...

L’objectif de l’article est caractériser les initiatives individuelles et collectives mises en œuvre par pêcheurs artisans sénégalais pour faire face à la crise (écologique économique). De telles s’organisent autour dynamiques nouvelles « politiques » techniques », légales ou illégales l’exemple pêche migrante, le ciblage ressources, mixité des pêche, encore bateaux ramasseurs. Il s’agit ici d’...