نتایج جستجو برای: مدل varma

تعداد نتایج: 120396  

ژورنال: :سیاست گذاری اقتصادی 2016
حامد عبدالملکی سید کمال صادقی

اثرات نااطمینانی اقتصاد کلان اعم از اسمی (تورم) و حقیقی (رشد تولید) بر عملکرد و کارایی اقتصاد از جمله موضوعات مهم و پیچیده می باشد. هزینه های تورم بالا و نااطمینانی تورم اثرات نامطلوب و جبران ناپذیری را بر پیکره اقتصاد و رفاه جامعه وارد می سازد. جدای از روند تورم در طول زمان، نااطمینانی تورم نیز ممکن است رشد تولید را تحت تاثیر قرار دهد. همانند نااطمینانی تورم، نااطمینانی رشد تولید نیز می تواند ...

2000
Tarek Jouini

In this paper we propose bootstrapping Hannan and Rissanen (1982) estimators in stationary invertible VARMA models, with known order (p, q). Although we consider bootstrapping such models under the echelon form parameterization, the results we derive herein remain valid to other alternative identification issues. In particular, we shall exploit the theoretical developments stated in Dufour and ...

Journal: :Computational Statistics & Data Analysis 2006
José Alberto Mauricio

A useful class of partially nonstationary vector autoregressive moving average (VARMA) models is considered with regard to parameter estimation. An exact maximum likelihood (EML) approach is developed on the basis of a simple transformation applied to the error-correction representation of the models considered. The employed transformation is shown to provide a standard VARMA model with the imp...

Journal: :Econometrics and Statistics 2022

Strong consistency and asymptotic normality of a Gaussian quasi-maximum likelihood estimator for the parameters causal, invertible, identifiable vector autoregressive-moving average (VARMA) model are established in an indirect way. The proof is based on similar results much wider class VARMA models with time-dependent coefficients, hence context non-stationary heteroscedastic time series. For t...

2012
Mala Raghavan George Athanasopoulos Param Silvapulle

This paper builds a structural VARMA (SVARMA) model for investigating Canadian monetary policy. Despite the support for a VARMA model for monetary policy analysis, the traditional VAR and SVAR models have predominantly been used in the literature mainly due to difficulties associated with the identification and estimation of such a model. Using the scalar component model (SCM) proposed by Athan...

2007
George Athanasopoulos D. S. Poskitt Farshid Vahid

In this paper we study two methodologies which identify and specify canonical form VARMA models. The two methodologies are: (i) an extension of the scalar component methodology which specifies canonical VARMA models by identifying scalar components through canonical correlations analysis and (ii) the Echelon form methodology which specifies canonical VARMA models through the estimation of Krone...

2009
Ruey S. Tsay

0.1 Asymptotic Distribution for Conditional MLE of VARMA Models For a well-defined stationary and invertible VARMA(p, q) model, we assume that the innovations {at} satisfies (a) E(at|Ft−1) = 0, (b) E(atat|Ft−1) = Σ > 0, and (c) at has finite fourth moments, where Ft−1 denotes the σ-field generated by {zt−1, zt−2, · · ·}. It has been proven (Dunsmuir and Hannan, 1976, and Hannan and Deistler, 19...

2009
Mala Raghavan George Athanasopoulos Param Silvapulle

In this paper, we take a step forward from the existing monetary literature, which is largely dominated by vector autoregressive (VAR) and structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) models, and apply a vector autoregressive moving average (VARMA) methodology for modelling and analysing Malaysian monetary policy. The Malaysian economy is an interesting case study of a small open economy with capita...

نوسانات قیمت نفت توأم با نااطمینانی به عنوان متغیری برون‌زا، از مهم‌ترین عوامل تأثیرگذار در نوسانات تولید ناخالص داخلی کشورها به‌ویژه کشورهای صادرکنندۀ نفت است. این پژوهش به بررسی اثر نااطمینانی قیمت نفت بر رشد تولید ناخالص داخلی ایران با استفاده از داده‌های فصلی 1390:4-1367:1 می‌پردازد. مدل مورد استفاده در این پژوهش، مدل نامتقارن VARMA, MVGARCH-M و روش برآورد شبه حداکثر راست‌نمایی (QML) می‌باش...

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