We agree that either mistaking a stochastic trend for a deterministic trend (or vice-versa) is consequential for unit root tests and for tests of nonlinear serial dependence. In addition, we comment that similar results obtain for ordinary parameter inference in simple linear models. In particular, we note that detrending stochastically trended data with a deterministic polynomial or by applyin...

The performance of a kernel HAC estimator depends on the accuracy of the estimation of the normalized curvature, an unknown quantity in the optimal bandwidth represented as the spectral density and its derivative. This paper proposes to estimate it with a general class of kernels. The AMSE of the kernel estimator and the AMSE-optimal bandwidth are derived. It is shown that the optimal bandwidth...

This paper establishes analytically what the asymptotic behavior of the DickeyFuller coefficient tests and the Dickey-Fuller t-statistic tests will be when the true data-generating process is a trigonometric function of an integrated process. Using some recently established limit theorems, it is shown that for such a data generating process, the asymptotic behavior of these unit root tests is r...

A semiparametric extension of the GJR model (Glosten et al., 1993. Journal of Finance 48, 1779–1801) is proposed for the volatility of foreign exchange returns. Under reasonable assumptions, asymptotic normal distributions are established for the estimators of the model, corroborated by simulation results. When applied to the Deutsche Mark/US Dollar and the Deutsche Mark/British Pound daily ret...

We propose a new methodology for designing flexible proposal densities for the joint posterior density of parameters and states in a nonlinear, non-Gaussian state space model. We show that a highly efficient Bayesian procedure emerges when these proposal densities are used in an independent Metropolis-Hastings algorithm or in importance sampling. Our method provides a computationally more effic...

Confidence intervals in econometric time series regressions suffer from notorious coverage problems. This is especially true when the dependence in the data is noticeable and sample sizes are small to moderate, as is often the case in empirical studies. This paper suggests using the studentized block bootstrap and discusses practical issues, such as the choice of the block size. A particular da...

This paper provides new empirical evidence that bears on the efficacy of unconventional monetary policies when main policy rate is negative. When a negative interest (NIRP) deployed in concert with forward guidance (FG) and quantitative easing (QE), identification impacts these instruments challenging. We propose novel approach seeks to overcome this challenge by combining dense, controlled eve...

Article history: Received 8 February 2010 Available online 11 February 2010 JEL classification: D50 D51 D53 D61 E40 E50 E51 E52 E58