Abstract The aim of this paper is to analyze the long-lasting dynamic relationship between credit default swap (CDS) premia and government bond spreads (GBS), with regard sovereign risk. practical focus evaluate whether CDS market effectively leading or lagging in risk price discovery process during last decade monetary easing. analysis extends all “sensitive” countries Eurozone, so-called “PII...

I present evidence of inefficient information processing in equity markets by documenting that negative information withheld by securities analysts is incorporated in stock prices with a significant delay. I estimate the extent of the withheld negative information based on the proportion of analysts who stop revising their annual earnings forecasts. This measure predicts negative earnings surpr...

This research aims to analyze and to compare the ability of different mathematical models, such as artificial neural networks (ANN) and ARCH and GARCH models, to forecast the daily exchange rates Euro/U.S. dollar (USD), identifying which, among all the models applied, produces more accurate forecasts. By empirically comparing the different mathematical models developed in this research, the tra...

In this paper, we propose a multivariate quantile regression method which enables localized analysis on conditional quantiles and global comovement analysis on conditional ranges for high-dimensional data. The proposed method, hereafter referred to as FActorisable Sparse Tail Event Curves, or FASTEC for short, exploits the potential factor structure of multivariate conditional quantiles through...

We propose and test the idea that investor perceptions exhibit volatility ‘after-effects’ whereby perceived volatility is distorted after prolonged exposure to extreme volatility levels. Using VIX to measure perceived volatility in S&P 500 stocks, we find evidence of significant perceptual distortions in the aftermath of volatility regimes, consistent with the after-effect theory and recent exp...

This paper examines the relationship between realized daily skewness and future stock returns and investigates the impact of information releases on that relationship. We find that there exists a negative relationship between realized daily skewness and subsequent stock returns when there is no high-impact information release, but that the relationship becomes positive if the realized skewness ...

We investigate non-linearities in the stock return trading volume relationship by using daily data for 16 European countries in an asymmetric vector autoregressive model. In this framework, we test for asymmetries and analyze the dynamic relationship using a simulation based procedure for computing asymmetric impulse response functions. We find that stock returns have a significant influence on...