Current scientific knowledge on the future response of the climate system to human-induced perturbations is comprehensively captured by various model intercomparison efforts. In the preparation of the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), intercomparisons were organized for atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) and carbon cycle mo...

Forecasting researchers, with few exceptions, have ignored the current major forecasting controversy: global warming and the role of climate modelling in resolving this challenging topic. In this paper, we take a forecaster’s perspective in reviewing established principles for validating the atmospheric-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) used in most climate forecasting, and in particula...

A B S T R A C T Of the two dozen or so global atmosphere–ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs), many share parameterizations, components or numerical schemes, and several are developed by the same institutions. Thus it is natural to suspect that some of the AOGCMs have correlated error patterns. Here we present a local eigenvalue analysis for the AOGCM errors based on statistically quantifi...

Of the two dozen or so global atmosphere ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs), many share parameterizations, components or numerical schemes, and several are developed by the same institutions. Thus it is natural to suspect that some of the AOGCMs have correlated error patterns. Here we present a local eigenvalue analysis for the AOGCM errors based on statistically quantified correlation m...