In the present study, we used a new approach to establish smallest effect size of interest (SESOI) for false memory research by asking researchers what they considered be SESOI in research. They were presented with three hypothetical and influential paper scenarios. These scenarios depicted studies examining effects certain manipulations (e.g., therapy) on formation using well-known paradigms: ...

Data can be acquired, shared, and processed by an increasingly larger number of entities, in particular people. The distributed nature of this phenomenon has contributed to the development of many crowdsourcing projects. This scenario is prevalent in most forms of expert/non-expert group opinion and rating tasks (including many forms of internet or on-line user behavior), where a key element is...

In most parts of the world, the phrase “town meeting” can mean just about any gathering where local citizens offer their opinions, hear from candidates, or endure the latest government “dogand-pony show.” As Susan Clark and Frank Bryan readily admit in All Those in Favor, their new and timely book on Vermont’s town meetings, references to the term in college textbooks “are as apt to be found in...

Likelihood ratios are increasingly being adopted to convey expert evaluative opinions to courts. In the absence of appropriate databases, many of these likelihood ratios will include verbal rather than numerical estimates of the support offered by the analysis. However evidence suggests that verbal formulations of uncertainty are a less effective form of communication than equivalent numerical ...

BACKGROUND Ethical issues related to comparative effectiveness research, or research that compares existing standards of care, have recently received considerable attention. In this paper we focus on how Ethics Review Committees (ERCs) should evaluate the risks of comparative effectiveness research. MAIN TEXT We discuss what has been a prominent focus in the debate about comparative effective...

The aim of this study is to identify the sources of uncertainty that induce the largest uncertainties in the model outcomes and quantify this uncertainty using expert elicitation. Analysis of expert opinions showed that the Qh-relation and the roughness predictor of the main channel cause the largest uncertainties for design water level computations. For effect studies, the floodplain topograph...

We analyze the Merton portfolio optimization problem when the growth rate is an unobserved Gaussian process whose level is estimated by filtering from observations of the stock price. We use the Kalman filter to track the hidden state(s) of expected returns given the history of asset prices, and then use this filter as input to a portfolio problem with an objective to maximize expected terminal...