Since the cancer has been the leading cause of deaths in Korea, estimation of the cancer deaths for the upcoming years in the population using the vital statistics is considered to be necessary. The aim of this study was to estimate the number and trends of cancer deaths in Korea. The expected numbers of cancer deaths were calculated by a time series model fitting the actual numbers of cancer d...

Data mining techniques are frequently used to extract the disease related factors from the huge datasets. Data mining is the task of discovering formerly unknown, appropriate patterns and relationships in huge datasets. Generally, each data mining task differs in the type of knowledge it extracts and the kind of data demonstration it uses to convey the discovered information. Forecasting is a p...

In the paper the problems of the pulse system dynamics identification and its evolution prediction are analyzed. The offered approach to these problem solutions consists in one-to-one mapping of a system stable state by a point (a vector) within the special space designed, but a transitional process – by a vector trend. Then dynamics evolution forecasting is realized as the vector trend treatme...

A univariate structural time series model based on the traditional decomposition into trend, seasonal and irregular components is defined. A number of methods of computing maximum likelihood estimators are then considered. These include direct maximization of various time domain likelihood function. The asymptotic properties of the estimators are given and a comparison between the various metho...

It is a common practice to complement a forecasting method such as simple exponential smoothing with a monitoring scheme to detect those situations where forecasts have failed to adapt to structural change. It will be suggested in this paper that the equations for simple exponential smoothing can be augmented by a common monitoring statistic to provide a method that automatically adapts to stru...

This paper introduces a new model of trend in‡ation. In contrast to many earlier approaches, which allow for trend in‡ation to evolve according to a random walk, ours is a bounded model which ensures that trend in‡ation is constrained to lie in an interval. The bounds of this interval can either be …xed or estimated from the data. Our model also allows for a time-varying degree of persistence i...

Trends are extracted from the central England temperature (CET) data available from 1723, using both annual and seasonal averages. Attention is focused on fitting non-parametric trends and it is found that, while there is no compelling evidence of a trend increase in the CET, there have been three periods of cooling, stability, and warming, roughly associated with the beginning and the end of t...

The heterogeneity of expectations among traders introduces an important non-linearity into the financial markets. In a series of papers, Brock and Hommes, propose to model economic and financial markets as adaptive belief systems. Asset price fluctuations in adaptive belief systems are characterized by phases of close-to-thefundamental-price fluctuations, phases of optimism where most agents fo...