This paper explores the importance of the terms of trade to explain output fluctuations in Colombia, a developing country where almost 60% of the exports correspond to four commodities: oil (32%), coal (17%), coffee (5%) and nickel (2%), and where 80% of its imports are intermediate and capital goods. This research is motivated fundamentally by the particular importance of short run fluctuation...

This paper analyzes the welfare implications of international spillovers related to productivity gains, changes in market size, or government spending. We introduce trade costs and endogenous varieties in a two-country general-equilibrium model with monopolistic competition, drawing a distinction between productivity gains that enhance manufacturing efficiency, and gains that lower the cost of ...

This paper presents an integrated view of economic growth, development traps, and economic geography. We explain why there is income convergence among some countries (neoclassical regime) and income divergence among others (poverty trap regime). Income convergence (divergence) and manufacturing industry di¤usion (agglomeration) are re-enforcing each other in a cumulative process. Moreover, trad...

International evidence indicates that higher terms of trade levels and lower terms of trade volatility contribute to enhanced growth outcomes, especially for commodity-export and developing countries. New Zealand’s terms of trade have been high and remarkably stable since the early 1990s compared with past experience. We analyse the proximate reasons behind these high, stable terms of trade and...

By incorporating human capital accumulation into a dynamic trade model, we examine the relationship between the growth rate and the specialization pattern of a growing economy. We found that as long as its autarky price differs from the world price, a small open-economy eventually specializes completely. Furthermore, the impact of the terms of trade on the growth rate depends on the trade patte...