It is a common practice to complement a forecasting method such as simple exponential smoothing with a monitoring scheme to detect those situations where forecasts have failed to adapt to structural change. It will be suggested in this paper that the equations for simple exponential smoothing can be augmented by a common monitoring statistic to provide a method that automatically adapts to stru...

We are dealing with regression models for point processes having a multiplicative intensity process of the form (t) b t. The deterministic function describes the long-term trend of the process. The stochastic process b accounts for the short-term random variations and depends on a nite-dimensional parameter. The semiparametric estimation procedure is based on one single observation over a long ...

We formulate a nonparametric technique for estimating the (cumulative) mean-value function of a nonhomogeneous Poisson process having a long-term trend or some cyclic e€ect(s) that may lack familiar trigonometric characteristics such as symmetry over the corresponding cycle(s). This multiresolution procedure begins at the lowest level of resolution by estimating any long-term trend in the targe...

We formulate a nonparametric technique for estimating the mean-value function of a nonhomogeneous Poisson process having a long-term trend or some cyclic effect(s) that may lack familiar trigonometric characteristics such as symmetry over the corresponding cycle(s). This multiresolution procedure begins at the lowest level of resolution by estimating any long-term trend in the target counting p...

This study analyzes changing trends in U.S. health spending and concludes that although the long-term growth trend has been a good predictor of future spending, periodic differences in the growth trend are important. Of particular concern is the rapid acceleration in health spending beginning in 1998. If left unchecked, the current growth rate will result in almost 24 percent of GDP spent on he...

Before the Syrian uprising that began in 2011, the greater Fertile Crescent experienced the most severe drought in the instrumental record. For Syria, a country marked by poor governance and unsustainable agricultural and environmental policies, the drought had a catalytic effect, contributing to political unrest. We show that the recent decrease in Syrian precipitation is a combination of natu...

Mastering the underlying characteristics of carbon price changes can help governments formulate correct policies to keep efficient operation of carbon markets, and investors take effective measures to evade their investment risks. Empirical mode decomposition (EMD), a self-adaption data analysis approach for nonlinear and non-stationary time series, can accurately explain the formation mechanis...

The recent string of accounting scandals highlights the need for bond investors to reconsider the informational assumptions underlying traditional models of default. In these models it is implicitly assumed that the information used to calibrate and run the model is publicly available. In reality, model inputs and parameters are uncertain. We develop a class of cause and effect default models b...

An examination of 50 years of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)–National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) reanalysis from 1949 to 1998 reveals that significant spurious trends occur in the surface pressure field. Long-term surface pressure reductions are apparent south of 458S. The largest trend in surface pressure is near 658S where an approximately steady long-ter...

BACKGROUND Non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL) is a malignancy etiologically linked to immunomodulatory exposures and disorders. Endogenous female sex hormones may modify immune function and influence NHL risk. Few studies have examined associations between reproductive factors, which can serve as surrogates for such hormonal exposures, and NHL risk by subtype. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS Women in ...