Given that the core issues of attention research have been recognized for millenia, we do not know as much about attention as we should. I argue that the reasons for this failure are (1) we create spurious dichotomies, (2) we reify attention, treating it as a cause, when it is an effect, and (3) we equate a collection of facts with a theory. In order to correct these errors, we need a new techn...

Is the Introspection Thesis true? It certainly isn’t obvious. Introspection is the faculty by which each of us has access to his or her own mental states. Even if we were to suppose that mental states are identical to brain states, it doesn’t follow immediately from this supposition that we can introspect our mental states as brain states. This point is analogous to the following. It doesn’t fo...

In this paper an ARIMA model is used for time-series forecast involving wind speed measurements. Results are compared with the performance of a back propagation type NNT. Results show that ARIMA model is better than NNT for short time-intervals to forecast (10 minutes, 1 hour, 2 hours and 4 hours). Data was acquired from a unit located in Southern Andalusia (Peñaflor, Sevilla), with a soft orog...

Traditionally, the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model has been one of the most widely used linear models in time series forecasting. However, the ARIMA model cannot easily capture the nonlinear patterns. Support vector machines (SVMs), a novel neural network technique, have been successfully applied in solving nonlinear regression estimation problems. Therefore, this investi...

This paper presents an overview of and introduction to some of the standard time series modeling and forecasting techniques as implemented in SAS with PROC ARIMA and PROC AUTOREG, among others. Examples are presented to illustrate the concepts. In addition to a few initial ARIMA examples, more sophisticated modeling tools will be addressed. Included will be regression models with time series er...

The main objective of this paper is to show potential usefulness of the combination of autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models and logistic regression with automatic model selection (see our work presented at SUGI’28 and SUGI’29.) Timeseries analysis with ARIMA provides only one perspective of the information in the surveillance data (i.e. the number of patients as a function of...

We identify and estimate the mean and variance components of the daily closing share prices using ARIMA-GARCH type models by explaining the volatility structure of the residuals obtained under the best suited mean models for the said series. The parameters of ARIMA type simple specifications are routinely anticipated by applying the OLS methodology but it has two disadvantages when the volatili...

conomists love to say that there is no such thing as a free lunch. But the Chilean government agency responsible for school grants, Junta Nacional de Auxilio Escolar y Becas (JUNAEB), is an exception to the rule. During the school year, JUNAEB provides breakfast and lunch for 2 million children in primary and secondary public schools. In a developing country where about 14 percent of children u...

As a versatile investment tool in energy markets for speculators and hedgers, the Goldman Sachs Commodity Index (GSCI) futures are quite well known. Therefore, this paper proposes a hybrid model incorporating ARCH family models and ANN model to forecast GSCI futures price. Empirical results show that the hybrid ARCH(1)-M-ANN model is superior to ARIMA, ARCH(1),GARCH(1,1), EGARCH(1,1) and ARIMA-...

Predicting daily occupancy is extremely important for the revenue management of individual hotels. However, daily occupancy can fluctuate widely and is difficult to forecast accurately based on existing forecasting methods. In this paper, Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD)—a novel method—is introduced, and an individual hotel is chosen to test the effectiveness of EEMD in combination ...