The release of a harmful contaminant into a densely populated area could quickly affect significant numbers of people. The results of a physical modeling study of the atmospheric transport and dispersion of a hypothetical chlorine release are presented as a case study for situational awareness and preparedness planning. Both a Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) model and a rapid response model ...

Low-income residents are among the most vulnerable groups to climate change in urban areas, particularly regarding heat stress. However, their perceptions about heat and the impacts they face go often undocumented, and are seldom considered in decision-making processes delivering adaptation. This paper presents a robust tool to allow the integration of perception, concerns and impacts of differ...

The RAINS (Regional Air Pollution Information and Simulation) model (Alcamo et al., 1990. The RAINS Model of Acidification. Science and Strategies in Europe. Kluwer. Dordrecht) was developed at llASA as an integrated assessment tool 10 assist policy advisors in evaluating options for reducing acid rain . Such models help to build consistent frameworks for the analysis of abatement strategies. T...

iv 1. THE CHALLENGE 1 1.1. The Human Predicament 1 1.2. The Sustainability Notion 2 1.3. The Policy Context 3 2. THE SCENARIO APPROACH 5 2.1. Objectives 5 2.2. System Perspectives and Scenario Criteria 5 2.3. Global Scenarios in Historical Perspective 7 2.4. Methodological Elements 7 3. SCENARIO OVERVIEW 11 4. CRITICAL TRENDS 17 4.1. Population Growth 17 4.2. Economic Growth 18 4.3. Technologic...

Number: 002-0266 Title of the Paper: CAS-SIM: Complex Adaptive Supply Network Simulator, A Scenario Analysis Tool For Analyzing Supply Networks Name of the Conference: Second World Conference on POM and 15th Annual POM Conference, Cancun, Mexico, April 30 May 3, 2004. Surya D Pathak Management of Technology Program Vanderbilt University Box 1518, Station B, Nashville, TN-37235, U.S.A. Surya.d.P...

This article presents the design process behind the specification of a behaviour change intervention method to promote energy saving. The amount of energy used for food preparation is highly influenced by people’s behaviours. A usercentred design approach based on scenario analysis was applied to provide understanding of context of use and specification of user requirements. This knowledge was ...

Scenario planning is a method for learning about the future by understanding the nature and impact of the most uncertain and important driving forces affecting that future. However, most scenarios, being mostly stories, lack validation, dynamism and fail to acknowledge all relations between actors, activities and resources. In this paper, we propose an agent-based model for scenario development...

Although the purpose of strategic planning is straightforward to outline where an organization wants to go and how it’s going to get there its nature is complex and dynamic. Two techniques, the critical success factor (CSF) method and future scenario planning, can augment strategic planning efforts by illuminating an organization’s present situation and potential future. This paper explores the...

Based on the concepts and characteristics of dynamic strategy and scenario analysis, the thesis has discussed that how the scenario analysis applies in dynamic strategy for an enterprise within its function, the operation processes,its applying scopes and the keys of the scenario analysis in company's strategy planning application. And it analyzes the conditions of Chinese enterprise in the fac...