Annually between 1994 and 1998 over 400,000 acres of grain sorghum have been harvested in Missouri with an average yield of 86/bushels/acre. The average value of production during this period was over $90 million. Grain sorghum (milo) is an important crop for some Missouri producers. Many sorghum producers also produce corn, soybean, or wheat. Each of these commodities has an actively traded fu...

We study the strategic behavior of equity analysts whose compensation is based on relative performance of their stock recommendations. Our model predicts that riskaverse analysts issue identical recommendations to avoid falling behind their peers. Top analyst awards, on the other hand, motivate analysts to issue bold recommendations. However, when the stock return is very volatile, the herding ...

a r t i c l e i n f o We analyze firms' entry, production and hedging decisions under imperfect competition. We consider an oligopoly industry producing a homogeneous output in which risk-averse firms face an entry cost upon entering the industry, and then compete in Cournot with one another. Each firm faces uncertainty in the input cost when making production decision, and has access to the fu...

We theoretically study how commodity financialization affects trading behavior, prices and welfare through affecting risk sharing and price discovery in futures markets. In our model, the general equilibrium feature makes financial traders either provide or demand liquidity in the futures market, depending on the information environment. Consistent with recent evidence, commodity financializati...

This paper provides an investigation of the economic value of multivariate volatility forecasting ability using a testing framework in which the quality of competing methods is assessed from a conditional investment perspective. In doing this we are able to provide a novel means by which the benefits of using a particular set of volatility forecasts can be assessed. The results associated with ...

We solve a Pareto risk-sharing problem with heterogeneous agents with recursive utility over multiple goods. We use this optimal consumption allocation to derive a pricing kernel and the price of oil and related futures contracts. This gives us insight into the dynamics of risk premia in commodity markets for oil. As an example, in a calibrated version of our model we show how rising oil prices...

Between the 1970's and the 1980's, the derivatives market flourished. Forwards, futures and options began to be regularly traded. According to information gathered by The Bank of International Settlements, at the end of April 2001 the value of over-the-counter (OTC) positions outstanding was over US$99 trillion, while the value of positions outstanding in organized exchanges was approximately U...

This paper examines the impact of management preferences on optimal futures hedging strategy and associated performance. Applying an expected utility hedging objective, the optimal futures hedge ratio is determined for a range of preferences on risk aversion, hedging horizon and expected returns. Empirical results reveal substantial hedge ratio variation across distinct management preferences a...

Since financial derivatives are key instruments for risk taking as well as risk reduction, it is only straightforward to examine their role in currency crises. This paper addresses this issue by investigating the impact of currency futures trading on the underlying exchange rates. After a discussion of trading mechanisms and trader types, the linkage between futures trading activity and spot ma...

The agricultural goods futures market has recently regained the interest of corporate business, research institutions, and governments. This renewed interest is brought about by the increasing volatility of the prices of agricultural raw materials. In turn, these reflect the shift that has taken place in the European Union’s joint agricultural policy: from price support to income support and to...