In this paper we use data from 17 African nations in order to investigate the hypothesis that monetary union – represented in this case by the CFA Franc Zone – augments the extent of macroeconomic integration. The paper covers a number of dimensions of integration including the volume of bilateral trade, real exchange rate volatility and the magnitude of cross-country business cycle correlation.

This paper investigates the conditional correlations and volatility spillovers between the dollar exchange rate return, gold coin return and crude oil return to stock index return. Monthly returns in the 144 observations (2005 - 2017) are analyzed by constant conditional correlation, dynamic conditional correlation, VARMA-GARCH and VARMA-AGARCH models. So this paper presents interdependences in...

We report on a novel forecasting method based on nonlinear Markov modelling and canonical variate analysis, and investigate the use of a prediction algorithm to forecast conditional volatility. In particular, we assess the dynamic behaviour of the model by forecasting exchange rate volatility. It is found that the nonlinear Markov model can forecast exchange rate volatility significantly better...

Kenya’s export performance is still constraint by high level of inflation, high-interest rates, low savings, investments, and fluctuating exchange rates. Generally, exports have performed dismally in the recent past. It not yet clear as to whether this poor can be attributed rate volatility since, existing empirical evidence show mixed findings. The study sought establish impact on for period 1...

This paper analyzes the short-term effects of foreign capital flows on aggregate demand in Mexico: their magnitude, transmission channels, and the possible influence of the country’s choice of exchange rate regime. The study is motivated by the introduction of a floating system in December 1994, in a context of renewed volatility of international capital flows. During the band period, in the ea...

study of the variables which explain real exchange rate fluctuations and real exchange rate deviation from its long-run equilibrium path, indicates that these variables have negative effects on the supply of agricultural products, for export. therefore,it seems that any attempt on stabilizing real exchang rate and bringing it closer to its equilibrium rate can be favorable in the expansion of e...

The breakdown of the Bretton Woods system and the adoption of generalized ‡oating exchange rates ushered in a new era of exchange rate volatility and uncertainty. This increased volatility lead economists to search for economic models able to describe observed exchange rate behavior. The present is a technical Appendix to Cerrato et al. (2009) and presents detailed simulations of the proposed m...