We reconcile the findings of Holmes et al. (Ecology Letters, 10, 2007, 1182) that 95% confidence intervals for quasi-extinction risk were narrow for many vertebrates of conservation concern, with previous theory predicting wide confidence intervals. We extend previous theory, concerning the precision of quasi-extinction estimates as a function of population dynamic parameters, prediction interv...

Comprehensive beam tracing method is a simulation method that calculates refraction as well as reflection of sound. Due to the non-linear nature of Snell’s law, refraction (in contrast to reflection) is not a linear transformation. Because of this triangular beams used in comprehensive beam tracing simulation lose focus after refraction. In this paper the problem of non-linearity of refraction ...

Most of the existing algorithms for parameter estimation of damped sinusoidal signals are based only on the low-rank approximation of prediction matrix and ignore the Hankel property of the prediction matrix. In this article, we propose a modiied KT (MKT) algorithm exploiting both rank-deecient and Hankel properties of the prediction matrix. Computer simulation results demonstrate that, compare...

Value prediction is an important subproblem of several reinforcement learning (RL) algorithms. In a previous work, it has been shown that the combination of least-squares temporal-difference learning with ELM (extreme learning machine) networks is a powerful method for value prediction in continuous-state problems. This work proposes the use of ensembles to improve the approximation capabilitie...

We study distribution free, nonparametric prediction bands with a special focus on their finite sample behavior. First we investigate and develop different notions of finite sample coverage guarantees. Then we give a new prediction band estimator by combining the idea of “conformal prediction” (Vovk et al., 2009) with nonparametric conditional density estimation. The proposed estimator, called ...

We propose a simple close-to-normal approximation to a Weibull random variable r.v. and consider the problem of estimation of upper prediction limit UPL that includes at least l out of m future observations from a Weibull distribution at each of r locations, based on the proposed approximation and the well-known Box-Cox normal approximation. A comparative study based on Monte Carlo simulations ...

High-order harmonic generation (HHG) from aligned molecules has provided a promising way to probe the molecular orbital with an Ångström resolution. This method, usually called molecular orbital tomography (MOT) replies on a simple assumption of the plane-wave approximation (PW), which has long been questioned due to that PW approximation is known to be valid in the keV energy region. However, ...