نتایج جستجو برای: oil price forecasting
تعداد نتایج: 258362 فیلتر نتایج به سال:
This paper uses a quantile impulse response approach to investigate the impact of oil price shocks on Chinese stock returns. This process allows us to uncover asymmetric effects of oil price shocks on stock market returns by taking into account the different quantiles of oil price shocks. Our results show that the responses of Chinese stock market returns to oil price shocks differ greatly, dep...
This project is focused on the design of price forecasting tools for market operators and for market traders, taking into account the distinct purposes, data availability, and time horizons of the distinct users. Empirical price data from the MISO and RTE have been analyzed. A combined model is developed to forecast MISO day-ahead nodal prices. An ARIMA model is constructed to forecast RTE week...
Crude oil is one of the most necessitated worldwide required commodities. Any slight fluctuation in crude oil prices can have both direct and indirect influence on the economy of the countries. The unpredictability of crude oil prices forced many companies away from the competition and it influence the stock market and many other macroeconomic variables (inflation, GDP, Import bill etc). Crude ...
In addition to accurate forecasts of the price of oil, policy-makers are interested in evaluating the risks associated with the baseline forecast to gauge the implications of alternative oil price paths for the economic outlook. A structural model of the global oil market can be used to develop risk scenarios for oil price forecasts, based on hypothetical assumptions about future demand and s...
this study uses vector error correction model to examine the effects of oilseeds, crude oil and vegetable oil tariffs on vegetable oil consumer price. monthly data sets for the years 2004-2013 and var and vecm models were applied for this study. research findings indicates only a long term equilibrium relation between the study variables .the effect of vegetable oil tariffs on consumer and prod...
The main purpose of this paper is to estimate the volatility in global fertilizer prices. The endogenous structural breakpoint unit root test and alternative volatility models, including the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model, Exponential GARCH (EGARCH) model, and GJR model are estimated for six global fertilizer prices and the crude oil price. Weekly data f...
This paper uses cointegration to evaluate long-run foreign exchange exposure. Since this technique requires exchange rates to be nonstationary, such that purchasing power parity does not hold in the long run, the analysis focuses on recent empirical findings suggesting that real exchange rates are nonstationary particularly because of oil price changes. Hence, the paper also estimates long-run ...
This study examines the impact of oil price volatility on macroeconomic variables of the economy of Pakistan. We employed the Glosten, Jagannathan and Runkle (GJR) and Vector Autoregressive (VAR) models. The outcomes of the GJR model show the symmetric effect of oil price shock on conditional variance. Whereas Impulse Response Functions (IRFs) show the hostile effect on the employment and the o...
Accurate electricity price forecasting is a formidable challenge for market participants and managers owing to high volatility of the electricity prices. Price forecasting is also the most important management goal for market participants since it forms the basis of maximizing profits. This study investigates the performance of a novel neural network technique called Extreme Learning Machine (E...
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