This paper introduces a Bayesian Markov regime-switching model that allows the cointegration relationship between two time series to be switched on and off over time. Unlike classical approaches for testing and modeling cointegration, the Bayesian Markov switching method allows for estimation of the regime-specific model parameters via Markov Chain Monte Carlo and generates more reliable estima...

Studies of the effect of government spending on unemployment are potentially confounded by reverse causality. To address the endogeneity problem, we exploit variation in a porkbarrel road-building program, and find that higher government expenditure on road-building substantially reduces local unemployment. JEL Codes: E24, E62, H30, H54,

This paper develops a theory of regular Markov perfect equilibria in dynamic stochastic games. We show that almost all dynamic stochastic games have a finite number of locally isolated Markov perfect equilibria that are all regular. These equilibria are essential and strongly stable. Moreover, they all admit purification. JEL classification numbers: C73, C61, C62.

By means of a very simple example, this note illustrates the appeal of using Bayesian rather than classical methods to produce inference on hidden states in models of Markovian regime switching. JEL Classification: C11, C22.