in this paper, we examine influence oil shocks on macroeconomic variables and dutch disease phenomena when these variables encountered positive oil revenue shocks. statistical model which is copula approach is used to show when iran's macroeconomic variables encountered positive oil revenue casus dutch disease and oil revenue has non-symmetric influence on the growth economic. in another w...

This paper investigates the impact of seventeen US macroeconomic announcements on two broad and representative commodity futures indices. Based on a large sample from 1989 to 2005 we show that the daily price response of the CRB and GSCI commodity futures indices to macroeconomic news is state-dependent. During recessions, positive (negative) news about inflation and real activity lead to posit...

CONTEXT Economic difficulties at the individual level can lead to a number of behavioral problems, including substance abuse and delinquent behaviors. OBJECTIVE To examine the influence of a nationwide adverse economic environment during infancy, specifically, the high unemployment rates during and after the 1980 and 1981-1982 recessions, on rates of subsequent adolescent substance use and deli...

This paper offers new insights into the nature of exchange rate pass through modelling in the context of a Markov regime-switching environment. Using New Zealand data, the results indicate that pass through to import prices resulting from fluctuations in the exchange rate or exporter costs can be characterised as regime-specific. Furthermore, there is evidence that the probability of switching ...

We investigate how unemployment exit probabilities are affected by economic incentives, spell duration and macroeconomic conditions. Building on a database containing all registered unemployment spells in Norway in 1989-1998, we apply an econometric model in which exit probabilities vary freely over spell durations as well as calendar time. We find that i) the replacement ratio affects the exit...

An Analysis of Macroeconomic Impacts Produced by the Fixed Capital Investment in China Liu Baojun Tianjin University of Finance and Economics, Tianjin, 300222,China Abstract. In this paper we analyzed macroeconomic impacts produced by fixed capital investment in China, and proposed a model to analyze effect of structural change of fixed capital investment for macroeconomic impacts of fixed capi...

BACKGROUND The impact of macroeconomic conditions on health has been extensively explored, as well as the relationship between individual unemployment and health. There are, however, few studies taking both aspects into account and even fewer studies looking at the relationship in a life course perspective. In this study the aim was to assess the role of macroeconomic conditions, such as nation...

Monte Carlo simulation is a common method for studying the volatility of market traded instruments. It is less employed in retail lending, because of the inherent nonlinearities in consumer behavior. In this paper, we leverage the approach of Dual-time Dynamics to separate loan performance dynamics into three components: a maturation function of months-on-books, an exogenous function of calenda...