Estimates of several components of forecasting skill can be obtained by combining a skill-score decomposition developed by Allan Murphy with techniques for decomposing correlation coefficients that have been employed in research on human judgment. The decomposition of the correlation coefficient requires knowledge of the information or "cues" used by the forecaster. When the cues are known, it ...

Recipients of educational score reports generally welcome the idea of receiving more descriptive feedback about examinee performance than is provided by a total score or a percentile rank indicating overall performance. This is not surprising as descriptive score reports have the potential to aid score users in the development of student-based instructional plans and/or suggest areas for classr...

Background and Purpose: Communication has become a core topic in nursing care and investigations on this topic could have a significant impact on increasing nursing quality services. The present study aims to evaluate the communication skills and nursing staff component focusing on emotional management, others' perception and self-expression. Methods: This is a cross-sectional descriptive-analy...

In the forecasting of binary events, verification measures that are ‘‘equitable’’ were defined by Gandin and Murphy to satisfy two requirements: 1) they award all random forecasting systems, including those that always issue the same forecast, the same expected score (typically zero), and 2) they are expressible as the linear weighted sum of the elements of the contingency table, where the weig...

Subseasonal probabilistic prediction of tropical cyclone (TC) genesis is investigated here using models from the seasonal to subseasonal (S2S) dataset. Forecasts are produced for basin-wide TC occurrence at weekly temporal resolution. Forecast skill is measured using the Brier skill score relative to two no-skill climatological forecasts: an annual mean climatology that is constant through the ...

Solar flares not only pose risks to outer space technologies and astronauts’ well being, but also cause disruptions on earth our high-tech, interconnected infrastructure lives highly depend on. While a number of machine-learning methods have been proposed improve flare prediction, none them, the best knowledge, investigated impact outliers reliability robustness those models’ performance. In th...