Stock market prediction is an attractive research problem to be investigated. News contents are one of the most important factors that have influence on market. Considering the news impact in analyzing the stock market behavior, leads to more precise predictions and as a result more profitable trades. So far various prototypes have been developed which consider the impact of news in stock marke...

We investigate the strength and the direction of information transfer in the U.S. stock market between the composite stock price index of stock market and prices of individual stocks using the transfer entropy. Through the directionality of the information transfer, we find that individual stocks are influenced by the index of the market.

a r t i c l e i n f o JEL classification: C22 F31 F37 G12 G15 Keywords: Stock return Chinese stock market Conditional heteroskedasticity Leverage effect Regime persistence In recent years the Chinese stock market has experienced an astonishing growth and unprecedented development , but is also viewed as one of the most volatile markets, which has been called by many observers a " casino ". This...

This paper uses an empirical connection between real stock market indices of Germany and the USA for forecasting corresponding returns. We are starting from the random walk as the traditional forecasting model in stock market applications, extending it by co-integration. Since the cointegrating relation considers information about a systematic link between the stock market indices, containing a...

This paper investigates the response of US stock market uncertainty to monetary policy of the Federal Reserve Bank. It can be shown that monetary policy signifi cantly Granger-causes stock market confi dence. By using monthly closing prices of the V IX as a stock market uncertainty proxy and a copula-based Markov approach the stable nonlinear relation between confi dence and uncertainty is demo...

We have introduced an early warning system for volatility regimes regarding Tehran Stock Exchange using Markov Switching GARCH approach. We have examined whether Tehran Stock Market has calmed down or more specifically, whether the surge in volatility during 2007-2010 global financial crises still affects stock return volatility in Iran.  Doing so, we have used a regime switching GARCH model.  ...

This paper examines the causal relationship between stock prices and macroeconomic aggregates in Iran, by applying the techniques of the long–run Granger non–causality test proposed by Toda and Yamamoto (1995). We test the causal relationships between the TEPIX Index and the three macroeconomic variables: money supply, value of trade balance, and industrial production using quarterly data for t...

One of the features of a financial market, the stock market, in particular, is the market sentiment which is the overall attitude of investors toward a particular security or financial market. Investors always seek to create a portfolio with minimum risk while maintaining the expected return level. Therefore, perceiving the relationship between the stock returns and markets returns can be helpf...