Empirical evidence suggests that the instrument rule describing the interest rate setting behavior of the Federal Reserve is non-linear. This paper shows that optimal monetary policy under parameter uncertainty can motivate this pattern. If the central bank is uncertain about the slope of the Phillips curve and follows a min-max strategy to formulate policy, the interest rate reacts more strong...

This paper compares three reduced-form models of heterogeneity in survey inflation expectations. On the one hand, we specify two models of forecasting inflation based on limited information flows of the type developed in Mankiw and Reis [2002. Sticky information versus sticky prices: a proposal to replace the new Keynesian Phillips curve. Quarterly Journal of Economics 117(4), 1295–1328]. We pr...

We investigate the range of inflationary universe models driven by scalar fields possessing a general interaction potential of the form V (φ) = V0φ n exp(−λφm). Power-law, de Sitter and intermediate inflationary universes emerge as special cases together with several new varieties of inflation. Analysing the behaviour of these models at the extrema of φ we derive sufficient constraints on the m...

During inflation, primordial energy density fluctuations are created from approximate de Sitter vacuum quantum fluctuations redshifted out of the horizon after which they are frozen as perturbations in the background curvature. In this paper we demonstrate that there exists an intrinsic theoretical uncertainty in the inflationary predictions for the curvature perturbations due to the failure of...

The real rate of interest indicates borrowing costs (or the return on an investment in financial assets), disregarding price increases. The expected real interest rate is important to investments, consumption and savings, and is therefore significant in the evaluation of economic prospects. The problem is that since the inflation expectations of investors and borrowers are not known, it cannot ...