Abstract: Inflation targeting (IT) has recently become a popular monetary policy tool to fight inflation in advanced as well as emerging market economies. IT is assumed to curtail inflationary expectations; aiding monetary authorities implement disinflationary policies. The evidence toward IT’s role in anchoring expectations in practice can be at best described as mixed, if not confusing. In th...

This paper brings together several strands of the inflation literature. Specifically, this paper uses the forecast from a random walk model of inflation as a benchmark to test and compare the forecast performance of several alternatives including the Greenbook forecast by the Fed staff, the Survey of Professional Forecasters median forecast, lagged CPI inflation minus food and energy, lagged CP...

This explanation has been articulated in a number of recent papers. See, for example, Azariadis and Smith (forthcoming), Boyd and Smith (forthcoming), and Schreft and Smith (forthcoming and 1994). A consensus among economists seems to be that high rates of inflation cause " problems, " not just for some individuals, but for aggregate economic performance. There is much less agreement about what...

The paper investigates the relationship between inflation and inflation uncertainty using the Iranian data over the period 1959:03 – 2008:02. GARCH models are used to examine this relationship. Granger methods are employed to provide statistical evidence for the relationship between average inflation and inflation uncertainty. Threshold GARCH (TGARCH) models are considered to investigate asymme...

This paper examines the idea that the rate of inflation tends to increase nominal government expenditures faster than government revenues. it concludes that while government expenditures rise concurrently with inflation, real government revenues tend to fall based on collection tags. Empirical results using time series data for Iran support our expectations in which the longer is the delay in g...

T his empirical analysis endeavors to trace out the causal nexus between core inflation and economic growth from the perspective of twenty worlds’ leading economy with the help of the nonlinear Granger causality approach by using time series data from 1981 to 2016. Based on nonlinear Granger causality results, it has been found that there is unidirectional casualty running from core ...

There is no evidence that previous studies, available to Iran’s inflation literature, have used spectral methodology to analyze a possible relationship between inflation and its main determinants within a specific period. Accordingly, the present study investigates the effects of money growth, real output growth, output gap and interest rate changes on inflation at low and high frequencies...

Central banks in Asia and the Pacific have overwhelmingly chosen inflation as the principal objective of monetary policy. Some central banks have declared themselves to be inflation targeters, while others pursue their objective without referring to this particular label. Moreover, whether or not they refer to their strategy as inflation targeting, central banks in the region have chosen divers...

In the model of Chain Inflation, a sequential chain of coupled scalar fields drives inflation. We consider a multidimensional potential with a large number of bowls, or local minima, separated by energy barriers: inflation takes place as the system tunnels from the highest energy bowl to another bowl of lower energy, and so on until it reaches the zero energy ground state. Such a scenario can b...