Abstract A perennial objection against Bayes factor point-null hypothesis tests is that the known to be false from outset. We examine consequences of approximating sharp by a hazy ‘peri-null’ instantiated as narrow prior distribution centered on point interest. The peri-null then equals multiplied correction term which itself factor. For moderate sample sizes, relatively inconsequential; howeve...

The tendency to test outcomes that are predicted by our current theory (the confirmation bias) is one of the best-known biases of human decision making. We prove that the confirmation bias is an optimal strategy for testing hypotheses when those hypotheses are deterministic, each making a single prediction about the next event in a sequence. Our proof applies for two normative standards commonl...