We survey an emerging literature on the econometric analysis of static and dynamic models of strategic interactions. Econometric methods of identification and estimation allow researcher to make use of observed data on individual choice behavior and on the conditional transition distribution of state variables to recover the underlying structural parameters of payoff functions and discount rate...

This analysis examines the long-run demand for the adjusted monetary base in the United States, 1919–1999. When the “price” of the base is measured by the inverse of the yield on long-term, high-quality corporate bonds and an appropriate functional form is selected, the quantity of base money demanded is found to be a stable function “...of a small number of variables.” § The authors are, respe...

The aggregate update problem has received considerable attention since pure functional programming languages were recognised as an interesting research topic. There is extensive literature in this area, which proposes a wide variety of solutions. We have tried to apply some of the proposed solutions to our own applications to see how these solutions work in practice. We have been able to use de...

1. Ground Motion Models • describe ground motion caused by earthquakes given event and site related predictor variables • a popular model, based on physical principles, is the so-called stochastic model a • because of its complexity, a surrogate model is often used instead • usually a regression function is fitted through data generated by the stochastic model; the functional form is derived fr...

Qualitative simulation is a useful method for predicting the possible qualitatively distinct behaviors of an incompletely known mechanism described by a system of qualitative diierential equations (QDEs). Under some circumstances, sparse information about the derivatives of variables can lead to intractable branching (or \chatter") representing uninteresting or even spurious distinctions among ...

The Self-Reconciling Evidential Database (SED) is a tool for intelligence analysu that combines a numerical uncertainty calculus with a process of higher-order reasoning about knowledge and assumptions. SED includes (1) a natural representation of evidential arguments in terms of a normal or first-blush reaction to the evidence plus a set of exception conditions, (2) a modeling technique that d...

Research teams are the fundamental social unit of science, and yet there is currently no model that describes their basic property: size. In most fields, teams have grown significantly in recent decades. We show that this is partly due to the change in the character of team size distribution. We explain these changes with a comprehensive yet straightforward model of how teams of different sizes...

In this article, we give a negative answer to a question of Hof, Knill and Simon (1995) concerning purely morphic sequences obtained from primitive morphism containing an infinite number of palindromes. Their conjecture states that such palindromic sequences arise from substitutions that are in class P. The conjecture was proven for the binary alphabet by B. Tan in 2007. We give here a countere...

We examine a new voting procedure that allows voters to express their preferences in the form of a voting strategy — a first-order function which specifies a vote. We examine the calculations necessary to formulate such voting strategies, and present examples which illustrate the effects of risk. The voting framework we discuss allows rational voters to vote strategically using decision-theoret...

We study the palindrome complexity of infinite sequences on finite alphabets, i.e., the number of palindromic factors (blocks) of given length occurring in a given sequence. We survey the known results and obtain new results for some sequences, in particular for Rote sequences and for fixed points of primitive morphisms of constant length belonging to “class P” of Hof-Knill-Simon. We also give ...