نتایج جستجو برای: hadcm3 دوره 2030 2010
تعداد نتایج: 258553 فیلتر نتایج به سال:
BACKGROUND Previous efforts to forecast future trends in obesity applied linear forecasts assuming that the rise in obesity would continue unabated. However, evidence suggests that obesity prevalence may be leveling off. PURPOSE This study presents estimates of adult obesity and severe obesity prevalence through 2030 based on nonlinear regression models. The forecasted results are then used t...
Urban growth modelling cellular automata has blossomed due to the advancement in geographic information systems (GIS), remote sensing and computer technology. Among such urban growth models, our urban growth model (UGM), was modified from SLEUTH (Slope Land-use Transport Hill-shade) model. UGM has been integrated in the XULU modeling frame-work (eXtendable Unified Land Use Modelling Platform). ...
تغییر اقلیم دارای اثرات مستقیمی بر فرآیندهای هیدرولوژیکی نظیر تبخیر از سطح آب، تعرق از گیاه، تغذیه آب های زیرزمینی و رواناب دارد. شبکه های آبیاری تحت فشار طراحی شده بر اساس شرایط اقلیمی گذشته، ممکن است بدلیل افزایش تقاضای آب، عملکردشان تحت تأثیر قرار بگیرد. هدف اصلی این تحقیق، بررسی اثرات تغییر اقلیم روی نیاز آبی گیاهان و تاثیر آن بر مدیریت بهره برداری سیستم و ساعات کارکرد قطره چکان در شبکه آبی...
INTRODUCTION In the context of rapid population ageing and the increase in number of activity of daily living (ADL) limitations with age, the number of older persons requiring human assistance in Singapore is likely to grow. To promote informed planning for the needs of these elderly, we project the number of resident Singaporeans 60 years of age and older with 1 or more ADL limitations requiri...
Climate change is one of the leading issues affecting river basins due to its direct impacts on cryosphere and hydrosphere. General circulation models (GCMs) are widely applied tools assess climate but coarse spatial resolution GCMs limit their application for local studies. This study selected five CMIP5 (CCSM4, HadCM3, GFDL-CM3, MRI-CGCM3 CanESM2) performance evaluation ranked by Nash–Sutclif...
By 2025, it is estimated that around 5 billion people, out of a total population of around 8 billion, will be living in countries experiencing water stress (using more than 20% of their available resources). Climate change has the potential to impose additional pressures in some regions. This paper describes an assessment of the implications of climate change for global hydrological regimes and...
The Global strategy for women’s, children’s and adolescents’ health (2016–2030) provides a roadmap for ending preventable deaths of women, children and adolescents by 2030 and helping them achieve their potential for and rights to health and well-being in all settings.1 The global strategy has three objectives: survive (end preventable deaths); thrive (ensure health and well-being); and transfo...
In 2011 a new Investment Framework was proposed that described how the scale-up of key HIV interventions could dramatically reduce new HIV infections and AIDS-related deaths in low and middle income countries by 2015. This framework included ambitious coverage goals for prevention and treatment services for 2015, resulting in a reduction of new HIV infections by more than half, in line with the...
BACKGROUND The incidence of esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC) has increased five-fold in the United States since 1975. The aim of our study was to estimate future U.S. EAC incidence and mortality and to shed light on the potential drivers in the disease process that are conduits for the dramatic increase in EAC incidence. METHODS A consortium of three research groups calibrated independent math...
Land use change has large effects on natural ecosystems, which is considered to be the main factor in eco-environment change. We analyzed the future characters of land use change by the CLUE-S model and explored landscape ecological risk responses to land use change by the landscape ecological risk index method. Using the Luanhe River Basin as a case study, we simulated future land use change f...
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