We develop a method for measuring the amount of insurance the portfolio of government liabilities provides against fiscal shocks, and apply it to postwar US data. We define fiscal shocks as surprises in defense spending. Our results indicate that the US federal government is partially hedged against wars and other surprise increases in defense expenditures. Seven percent of the total cost of de...

The standard analysis of the efficient management of income taxes and debt assumes a benevolent government and ignores potential distortions arising from rent-seeking politicians. This paper departs from this framework by assuming that a rent-seeking politician chooses policies. If the politician chooses extractive policies, citizens throw him out of power. We analyse the efficient sustainable ...

Using a novel dataset on local government debt and house prices in California, this paper finds that the rise in house prices caused an expansion in local governments debt in the early 2000s. The elasticity between local government debt and house prices, estimated using cross-sectional variation in the share of developable land from Saiz (2010), suggest that a percentage point rise in house pri...

I ncreased expenditures and the government size is an important issue in public sector economics. In this regard, various theories have been developed in order to justify the reasons for the public expenditure growth, and the theories have been empirically tested. One of the outlooks explaining the government expenditures growth and the economy size, is fiscal illusion approach. According ...

This paper replicates Sims (2011) “stepping on a rake” model. It derives the model, shows how to solve it, offers some extensions, and boils the paper down to its central ingredient. Sims’ article is important: it is a simple modern economic model that produces a temporary decline in inflation when the central bank persistently raises interest rates. Inflation then rises. The model’s essential ...

In this paper we explore what impact, if any, government debts have on achieving the Millennium Development Goals for the Indian states. To fulfill the goals, national governments, especially in the developing world, have to undertake major investments in the social sector; but how much they will really be able to do so will depend on the conditions of their finances. For the Indian states we f...

During the last three decades, the stock of government debt has increased in most developed countries. During the same period, we also observe a significant liberalization of international financial markets and an increase in income inequality in several industrialized countries. In this paper we propose a multicountry political economy model with incomplete markets and endogenous government bo...

We show that municipalities’ credit constraints can have important effects on local economies through a ratings channel. We identify these effects by exploiting exogenous variation on U.S. municipal bond ratings due to Moody’s recalibration of its ratings scale in 2010. We find that local governments increase expenditures and employment due to an expansion of their debt capacity following a rat...

In this paper we examine government debt and tax-transfer policies that can improve the allocation of risk between generations. Markets cannot allocate risk efficiently between two generations whenever the two generations are not both alive prior to the occurrence of a stochastic event. This implies that government policies transferring risk between generations have the potential to create firs...